Memphis Grizzlies (21-33) vs. Miami Heat (30-27)
February 21, 2026 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Heat -9.5; Over/Under: 238.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Heat play host to the Memphis Grizzlies at the Kaseya Center on Saturday night. Here’s a Heat vs. Grizzlies prediction. This article will include a Heat vs. Grizzlies pick.
Memphis Grizzlies Betting Preview
The Memphis Grizzlies have been in a major slump, as they’ve lost 10 of their last 13 games overall, but they will be feeling much better after they snapped a four-game losing streak with a 123-114 win over the Jazz last night. Olivier-Maxence Prosper led the team with 23 points off the bench, GG Jackson added 20 points, Javon Small added 16 points, and Cam Spencer tallied 10 points with 10 assists. As a team, the Grizzlies shot 49 percent from the field and 12 of 33 from the 3-point line as they struggled to contain the Jazz early on and allowed 67 points in the first half to fall behind by 14 points early on, but that all changed in the second half, where the Grizzlies outscored the Jazz by 68-47 to make it look easy in the end.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have been in decent form, as they’ve split their last eight games overall, and they will be aiming for a third straight victory after last night’s 128-97 road win over the Hawks. Tyler Herro returned to the lineup to lead the team with 24 points on nine of 14 shooting off the bench, Bam Adebayo added 17 points with eight rebounds and five assists, while Norman Powell chipped in with 15 points. As a team, the Heat shot 52 percent from the field and 13 of 35 from the 3-point line as they set the tone defensively and held the Hawks to just 16 points in the first quarter to take a double-digit lead, but the Heat really didn’t gain full control of the contest until they exploded for 41 points in the fourth quarter to make it a complete blowout in the end.
Why the Miami Heat will win
- The Grizzlies have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The Heat have won eight of their last nine games against Southwest Division opponents that held a losing record.
- The Grizzlies have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The Heat have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Why the Memphis Grizzlies will win
- The Heat have lost each of their last four games as home favorites following a win.
- The underdogs have won five of the Heat’s last six games at Kaseya Center.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of the Heat’s last six games.
- The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games following a win.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of the Grizzlies’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Heat’s last four games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone UNDER the total points line.
Heat vs Grizzlies Prediction
The Grizzlies are still missing a bunch of players, including Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Santi Aldama, and Cedric Coward, who are all out, while the Heat are only missing the suspended Terry Rozier. The Grizzlies looked great in their comeback win over the lowly Jazz last night, but it’s going to be tough to replicate that effort against this improving Heat squad, who look so much more dangerous with Herro back in action. The line was always going to be hefty given the long list of injuries the Grizzlies have had to deal with, but I still think the Heat get the job done with ease in this one, so I will be laying the points here.
