Milwaukee Bucks (59-25) vs. Miami Heat (46-40)
April 22, 2023 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Heat +4.5; Over/Under: +218.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat duke it out in Game 3 at the Kaseya Center on Saturday night.
The Milwaukee Bucks will be feeling much better after the responded to their series opening loss with a 138-122 win in Game 2 to square things up. Brook Lopez led the team with 25 points on 12 of 17 shooting, Jrue Holiday tallied 24 points with 11 assists, Pat Connaughton provided 22 points off the bench while Khris Middleton and Grayson Allen scored 16 points apiece. As a team, the Bucks shot 53 percent from the field and a sizzling 25 of 49 from the 3-point line as they jumped all over the Heat from the start and were always in control after exploding for 46 points in the second quarter. Without Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup, the Bucks dominated this one by as many as 36 points at one stage before they started to rest some starters early.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat would’ve been brimming with confidence after they stunned the Bucks in the series opener, but now they will be hoping to bounce back after getting blown off the floor on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler led the team with 25 points on eight of 12 shooting, Bam Adebayo added 18 points while Gabe Vincent chipped in with 16 points. As a team, the Heat shot 53 percent from the field and 16 of 36 from the 3-point line as they didn’t match the intensity of the Bucks early on and were never in the contest after allowing 81 points in the first half. The Heat committed a total of 17 turnovers, and they just couldn’t stop the Bucks who caught fire from the 3-point line and never relented.
Looking at the betting trends, the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days rest. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a loss of more than 10 points and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games playing on two days rest.
Head to head, the under is 24-9-1 in the last 34 meetings in Miami and the Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami.
The Bucks are keeping an eye on Giannis Antetokounmpo who is day to day, while the Heat will again be without Tyler Herro. The Bucks really flexed their depth in Game 2 as they dominated the game without the help of Antetokounmpo, but that was in the comfort of their home court. The Heat will be disappointed with losing on Wednesday, but the bottom line is that they were able to steal home-court advantage which is huge. The series now shifts to Miami, so it’s tempting to back the Heat in front of their home crowd, but I’m leaning more towards the Bucks as I’m more comfortable banking on Holiday, Middleton and Portis to get the win here.
