Oklahoma City Thunder (35-7) vs. Miami Heat (21-20)
January 17, 2026 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Heat +8.5; Over/Under: 234.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Heat play host to the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Kaseya Center on Saturday night. Here’s a Heat vs Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Heat vs Thunder Pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been on a tear as they’ve won nine of their last 11 games overall. They will be eager to build on their current five-game win streak after blowing past the Rockets in a 111-91 road win on Thursday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 20 points and four assists on six of 11 shooting, Chet Holmgren added 18 points with nine rebounds and four blocks while Ajay Mitchell chipped in with 17 points off the bench. As a team, the Thunder shot 46 percent from the field and 16 of 41 from the 3-point line. However, this win was more about their defense as they set the tone by holding the Rockets to just 19 points in the first quarter to jump out in front early. It was a real close contest all the way until the fourth quarter where the Thunder outscored the Rockets by 34-16 to pull away and make it a blowout in the end. Jalen Williams had a poor game as he shot just two of 11 from the field for his six points.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have been in a rut as they’ve lost four of their last five games overall. They will be hoping for a better effort after coming up just short to the Celtics in a 119-114 loss on Thursday. Norman Powell led the team with 26 points on 10 of 15 shooting, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro each scored 22 points while Andrew Wiggins chipped in with 16 points, eight rebounds and four assists. As a team, the Heat shot 45 percent from the field and 15 of 42 from the 3-point line as they stormed out of the gates with 36 points in the first quarter to take an early 19-point lead. But just when it looked like they would pull off the upset, the Heat got outscored by 36-21 in the fourth quarter to end up short in the end.
Why the Miami Heat will win
- The Heat have won four of their last six games as home underdogs.
- The Thunder have lost three of their last six games as road favorites following a win.
- The Heat have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against Southeast Division opponents.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 11 road games against Southeast Division opponents.
- The Heat have lost each of their last 14 games as home underdogs following a loss.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games against the Heat.
- The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games against Thunder teams that held a winning record.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of the Thunder’s last eight road games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Heat’s last seven home games against Northwest Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Miami Heat Player Facts
- Andrew Wiggins is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.
- Norman Powell ranks 6th amongst qualified players for fast break points per game (3.9) this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Chet Holmgren is the only player to have made 9+ field goals without a miss in a game this season.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has recorded 40 games with 3+ assists this season – equal-most of any player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Heat rank 30th in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.1%).
- The Heat rank 1st in the league for field goal attempts per game this season (92.9).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent points per game this season (107.7).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+13.4).
Heat vs Thunder Prediction
The Thunder have ruled out Isaiah Hartenstein and Nikola Topic once again, while the Heat have ruled out Jaime Jacquez Jr and Davion Mitchell with Tyler Herro listed as questionable. The Thunder are coming into this contest in red-hot form, and they must be brimming with confidence after making light work of the Rockets in their last outing despite a poor shooting night. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone cold lately and just blew a 19-point lead to the shorthanded Celtics in their last game. We keep expecting the Heat to turn things around now that they are relatively healthy, but they’ve struggled to build momentum and I don’t think a matchup with the Thunder will help their situation. These teams met less than three weeks ago, and it was the Thunder who rolled to a 124-112 win at home, and I’m expecting a similar result in this one with the Thunder covering the spread.
