Denver Nuggets (54-28) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
April 25, 2026 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5; Over/Under: 229.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves duke it out in a pivotal Game 3 at the Target Center on Saturday night. Here’s a Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction. This article will include a Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Pick.
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
The Denver Nuggets would have been disappointed with their effort in a tough loss in Game 2, but they are now officially in panic mode after getting thrashed by the Timberwolves in a 113-96 road defeat in Game 3 on Thursday. Nikola Jokic led the team with 27 points, 15 rebounds and three assists; Jamal Murray added 16 points with four assists, while Tim Hardaway Jr. chipped in with 11 points off the bench. As a team, the Nuggets shot just 34 percent from the field and eight of 32 from the 3-point line as they got off to a nightmare of a start and scored just 11 points in the first quarter to fall behind by double digits right away and they were always fighting a losing battle after their deficit ballooned to 27 points. The Nuggets really struggled against the defense of the Timberwolves as Jokic shot just seven of 26 from the field while Murray shot just five of 17 from the field and zero of five from the 3-point line.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves must be feeling pretty good about themselves after blowing past the Nuggets for the second game in a row to take the lead for the first time in this series after smashing the Nuggets on Thursday. Ayo Dosunmu led the team in scoring with 25 points and nine assists off the bench; Jaden McDaniels added 20 points with 10 rebounds and three assists, while Anthony Edwards chipped in with 17 points. As a team, the Timberwolves shot 47 percent from the field and nine of 34 from the 3-point line, but this win was all about their defense as they smothered the Nuggets from the tip-off and dominated the first half by 61-39 which allowed them to cruise in the second half unchallenged.
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win
- The Timberwolves have won each of their last six Western Conference First Round home games.
- The Nuggets have lost each of their last two Western Conference First Round games as road favorites.
- The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as road favorites.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread in each of their last six Western Conference First Round home games.
Why the Denver Nuggets will win
- The Nuggets have won each of their last six night games following a road loss.
- The Timberwolves have lost four of their last five games following a home win.
- The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Timberwolves’ last eight games at Target Center.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a home win.
Total Points: Facts
- Each of the Nuggets’ last eight games as road favorites following a road loss has gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Timberwolves’ last 11 playoff home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Rudy Gobert ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (68.2%) this season.
- Jaden McDaniels is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 three, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block this season.
Denver Nuggets Player Facts
- Nikola Jokic ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (10.7) this season.
- Jamal Murray is one of only five players in the league to have recorded 30+ points and 10+ assists in consecutive games this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (12.1).
- The Timberwolves have used only 14 different starting fives this season—the fewest in the league.
- The Nuggets rank 1st in the league for points per game this season (122.1).
- The Nuggets rank 30th in the league for steals per game this season (6.8).
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction
The Nuggets have ruled out Peyton Watson again, with Aaron Gordon listed as a game-time decision with that calf injury, while the Timberwolves expect to have a full squad once again. The Nuggets were looking to respond after dropping Game 2, but instead things went from bad to worse in Game 3, where the Timberwolves just dominated with their defense. I’m not surprised to see the Nuggets still open as slight favorites on the road, as they certainly need this win more than the Timberwolves, but the Nuggets’ lack of depth is getting exposed in this series and they are going to need a bunch of players to step up right now. You can make an argument for either side here, but the Timberwolves hold all the momentum and I think they will be good enough to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with a narrow win in this spot.
