Miami Heat (20-16) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (23-13)
January 6, 2026 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5; Over/Under: 237.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Heat pay a visit to the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Target Center on Tuesday night. Here’s a Timberwolves vs Heat Prediction. This article will include a Timberwolves vs Heat Pick.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Miami Heat have been in great form as they’ve won five of their last six games overall and they will be eager to stay hot after blowing past the Pelicans in a 125-106 home win on Sunday. Norman Powell drained nine 3-pointers to lead the way with 34 points on 11 of 15 shooting, Nikola Jovic added 19 points with three steals and two blocks while Kel’el Ware and Pelle Larsson each scored 16 points. As a team, the Heat shot 47 percent from the field and 18 of 44 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 43 points in the first quarter to take the early lead. However, they didn’t gain full control of the contest until the third quarter where they restricted the Pelicans to just 15 points to set up the comfortable win.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been in pretty good shape also as they’ve won six of their last nine games overall. They will be aiming for a third straight victory at making light work of the Wizards in a 141-115 road win on Sunday. Anthony Edwards led the team with 35 points on 14 of 21 shooting, Julius Randle added 22 points on nine of 15 shooting while Rudy Gobert tallied 18 points with 14 rebounds and four blocks on eight of 10 shooting. As a team, the Timberwolves shot 56 percent from the field and 11 of 37 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 38 points in the first quarter to take a 15-point lead into halftime. They just kept their foot on the gas until the lead ballooned to 37 points at one stage.
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win
- The Timberwolves have won each of their last eight games against the Heat following a road win.
- The Heat have lost each of their last four road games against Western Conference opponents following a win.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread in each of their last four games against Heat teams that held a winning record.
- The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games against Western Conference opponents following a win.
Why the Miami Heat will win
- The Heat have won each of their last five games as underdogs following a home win.
- The Timberwolves have lost 10 of their last 19 games as home favorites against Southeast Division opponents following a win.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 12 home games against Southeast Division opponents following a win.
- The Heat have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs following a home win.
Total Points Facts
- Eleven of the Heat’s last 12 road games against Northwest Division opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of the Timberwolves’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Rudy Gobert ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (71.4%) this season.
- Donte DiVincenzo has recorded nine games with 3+ assists and zero turnovers this season – equal-most of any player in the league.
Miami Heat Player Facts
- Davion Mitchell has recorded seven games with 5+ assists and zero turnovers this season – most of any player in the league.
- Kel’el Ware is the only qualified player in the league to be leading their team in blocks per game (1.3) and three-point shooting percentage (44.1%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for H2 win percentage this season (75.0%).
- The Timberwolves have used only four different starting fives this season – fewest in the league.
- The Heat rank 1st in the league for field goal attempts per game this season (93.3).
- The Heat rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.9).
Timberwolves vs Heat Prediction
The Heat are still missing Jaime Jacquez Jr but Tyler Herro has been upgraded to questionable for this one, while the Timberwolves are coming in with a full squad once again. The Heat have quietly been playing some great basketball lately to win five of their last six overall, and they looked great in their big win over the Pelicans thanks to Powell, who was on fire from the perimeter. However, the Timberwolves are also coming into this one with winning momentum, they have a full squad and home-court advantage to boot. I think the Timberwolves get a narrow win at home, but I think this will be close from start to finish, so I will lean towards the Heat with the points in this spot.
