Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction 5/11/25 NBA Picks Today

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets meet Sunday in the NBA playoffs Game 4 at the Ball Arena. Here’s a Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Nuggets vs Thunder Pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder need a win to even up the series at 2-2. The Thunder have lost three road games since February 2. The Thunder have won five of their last eight road playoff games. The Thunder have lost two straight games just once since November 20.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 121.7 points on 45.4 percent shooting and allowing 106 points on 42 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28 points and 6.7 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 22.6 points and 5 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Isaiah Hartenstein is grabbing 8.9 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 32.9 percent from beyond the arc and 78.9 percent from the free-throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 33.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 46.6 rebounds per game.

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview

The Denver Nuggets look for a win to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Nuggets have won 15 of their last 20 home playoff games. The Nuggets have won two straight games just once so far these playoffs.

The Denver Nuggets are averaging 109.4 points on 46.5 percent shooting and allowing 113 points on 47.5 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 24.7 points and 12.7 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 22.2 points and 5.1 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Russell Westbrook is grabbing 3.7 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 38.5 percent from beyond the arc and 74.9 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 35.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.3 rebounds per game.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Thunder’s last six games at Ball Arena.
• The Thunder have lost each of their last eight playoff road games against Northwest Division opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Thunder’s last 10 games at Ball Arena.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Nuggets after losing as favorites.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last eight games against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.
• The Nuggets have lost each of their last four games after coming off overtime.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last six games at Ball Arena following a loss.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games after coming off overtime.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Nikola Jokic is the only qualified player in the league averaging at least 25.0 points, 10.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds this season.
• Christian Braun ranks 1st in the league for fast break points (403) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (32.7) this season.
• Cason Wallace ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.8) this season.

Nuggets vs Thunder Injury Report

The Thunder will be without Nikola Topic.

The Nuggets will be without DaRon Holmes II.

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction

It’s easy to side with the Thunder, as they’ve lost two straight games once since November, and they’re 58-28-4 ATS on the season. The Thunder are the safest bet in all of sports these days. However, the Nuggets are a tough out at home, and they just won game 3 despite getting a poor effort from Jokic.

The Nuggets won a game despite Jokic shooting 8-25 from the field and turning the ball over eight times. That’s a positive sign moving forward, as he’s probably not going to play that bad again the rest of the series. The Nuggets have now won four of the last six games against OKC, and the underdog as covered eight of the last 10 games overall. I believe the Nuggets have a fair chance to win this game outright at home. Give me the points.