Dallas Mavericks (8-15) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (21-1)
December 5, 2025 9:30 pm EDT
The Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -15.5; Over/Under: 228.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder do battle at the Paycom Center on Friday night. Here’s a Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction. This article will include a Thunder vs Mavericks Pick.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Dallas Mavericks are starting to turn things around as they are now on a season-high three-game win streak after taking down the Heat in a 118-108 win on Wednesday. Cooper Flagg led the team with 22 points on nine of 13 shooting, Naji Marshall added 18 points with five rebounds and four assists while Klay Thompson and Anthony Davis each scored 17 points. As a team, the Mavericks shot 51 percent from the field and 16 of 32 from the 3-point line as they took control of the contest in the second quarter where they closed on a pivotal 26-10 run to lead by as many as 17 points. This was more than enough to hold off a late rally from the Heat who shot just 40 percent from the field for the game.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder have continued their historic start to the season as they’ve now won 21 of their first 22 games. They will be eager to build on their current 13-game win streak after running past the Warriors in a 124-112 road win on Tuesday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 38 points on 13 of 21 shooting, Jalen Williams added 22 points with six assists on nine of 16 shooting while Chet Holmgren chipped in with 21 points on eight of 12 shooting. As a team, the Thunder shot 58 percent from the field and 15 of 32 from the 3-point line, which are impressive numbers. However, the Thunder were actually in danger as they squandered a 22-point lead and trailed by four points after leaking 44 points in the third quarter before they responded in the fourth quarter to pull away and win comfortably in the end.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 39 games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Mavericks have lost 15 of their last 16 games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
- The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 road games against Western Conference opponents following a win.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last seven Friday games against teams that held a losing record.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The Mavericks have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against the Thunder.
- The Thunder have lost each of their last four home games against Mavericks teams that held a losing record.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Mavericks’ last eight games.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games against Mavericks teams that held a losing record.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of the Mavericks’ last eight road games against the Thunder following a home win have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Thunder’s last eight games against the Mavericks following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Chet Holmgren is the only player to have made 9+ field goals without a miss in a game this season.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 25+ points in seven consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
Dallas Mavericks Player Facts
- Klay Thompson ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (4.6) this season.
- Naji Marshall is one of only seven players to have scored 30+ points off the bench in a game this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent points per game this season (107.0).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+15.3).
- The Mavericks rank 1st in the league for opponent three-point percentage this season (32.6%).
- The Mavericks rank 1st in the league for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (11.1).
Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction
The Mavericks are still missing Dereck Lively, Dante Exum and Kyrie Irving with Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington both questionable, while the Thunder have ruled out Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort. The Mavericks were always going to open as heavy underdogs on the road, but they do deserve some credit for their last three wins. As for the Thunder, it has been business as usual for them as they survived a scare against the Warriors to post their 13th straight victory and their 14th victory this season by double digits. I have the Thunder continuing their dominance with another win at home, but the Mavericks were able to challenge the Thunder and lose by just seven points on Oct 27, and I think we’re about to see another relatively close contest. Give me the Mavericks with the points in a game that could be close.
