Thunder vs Heat Prediction 1/11/26 NBA Picks Today

The Oklahoma City Thunder play host to the Miami Heat at the Paycom Center on Sunday night. Here’s a Thunder vs Heat Prediction. This article will include a Thunder vs Heat Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview

The Miami Heat have cooled off a bit lately, as they’ve dropped three of their last four games overall. They will be looking to snap a two-game skid after getting thrashed by the ice-cold Pacers in a 123-99 road defeat last night. Tyler Herro led the team with 21 points, seven rebounds and four assists, Jaime Jacquez Jr added 16 points with seven rebounds while Bam Adebayo chipped in with 13 points and nine rebounds. As a team, the Heat shot just 39 percent from the field and four of 30 from the 3-point line as they struggled to match the intensity of the Pacers from the tipoff and got outscored by 36-18 in the first quarter. Things got worse in the third quarter where they allowed 38 points to fall behind by as many as 29 points at one stage.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been in great form as they’ve won six of their last eight games overall. They will be aiming for a third straight win after sneaking past the Grizzlies in a 117-116 road win on Friday. Jalen Williams led the team with 26 points and 10 assists, Ajay Mitchell added 23 points with six assists while Kenrich Williams provided the spark off the bench with 21 points on eight of 13 shooting. As a team, the Thunder shot 47 percent from the field and nine of 37 from the 3-point line as they got off to a terrible start and fell behind by 21 points. Before they clicked into gear and exploded for 71 points in the second half to run down the Grizzlies with time to spare in the end.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 12 games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Heat have lost seven of their last eight road games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in 12 of their last 13 games at Paycom Center against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games following a road loss.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Thunder have lost four of their last six games as home favorites against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Heat have won two of their last three games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games at Paycom Center against Heat teams that held a winning record.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Thunder’s last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Twelve of the Heat’s last 13 road games against Northwest Division opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Thunder’s last eight games as home favorites against the Heat have gone UNDER the total points line.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Chet Holmgren is the only player to have made 9+ field goals without a miss in a game this season.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has recorded 37 games with 3+ assists this season – most of any player in the league.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Davion Mitchell has recorded eight games with 5+ assists and zero turnovers this season – most of any player in the league.
• Kel’el Ware is the only qualified player in the league to be leading their team in blocks per game (1.2) and three-point shooting percentage (43.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent points per game this season (108.3).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+13.1).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for field goal attempts per game this season (93.4).
• The Heat rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.4).

Thunder vs Heat Prediction

The Heat are coming into this one with a full squad, while the Thunder are still missing Isaiah Hartenstein, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber. The Heat will be disappointed with their recent performances, especially last night’s big loss to the slumping Pacers, but they are as healthy as they’ve been all season so you expect them to turn things around sooner rather than later. In contrast, the Thunder have continued their strong run, and they would’ve taken so much confidence after overcame a 21-point deficit to beat the Grizzlies in their last outing. The Heat are playing their second game of a back to back set, which isn’t ideal, but this line still seems too high for this matchup regardless of recent form. I expect the Thunder to take an early lead before the Heat rally late to get the backdoor cover.