Pacers vs Thunder Prediction 6/13/25 NBA Picks Today

The Oklahoma City Thunder knew they had their work ahead of them when they dropped the series opener, but they are officially in trouble after getting beaten by 116-107 in a tough loss in Game 3 on Wednesday. They fall behind 2-1 in the series. Jalen Williams led the team in scoring with 26 points, six rebounds and three assists on nine of 18 shooting, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 24 points with eight rebounds and four assists while Chet Holmgren chipped in with 20 points and 10 rebounds.

As a team, the Thunder shot 46 percent from the field and 10 of 22 from the 3-point line as they got off to another quick start and looked comfortable after pouring in 32 points in the first quarter. However, they still fell behind going into halftime after allowing 40 points in the second quarter. The Thunder reclaimed control by holding the Pacers to just 20 points in the third quarter, but the Thunder fell apart on offense in the fourth quarter, where they managed just 18 points to fall behind again in the series. Only four players finished in double figures in scoring, no bench player scored more than eight points, and the Thunder committed 17 turnovers as a team.

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers were expecting a full house for their first home NBA Finals game in 25 years, and they were able to deliver with a pivotal home win in Game 3. Tyrese Haliburton steered the offense with 22 points, nine rebounds, and 11 assists while Pascal Siakam tallied 21 points with six rebounds and four assists. But the key difference between the teams was the Pacers’ bench production. TJ McConnell scored just 10 points with five assists and five steals in just 15 minutes of action, while Bennedict Mathurin led the team in scoring with 27 points on nine of 12 shooting.

As a team, the Pacers shot 51 percent from the field and nine of 27 from the 3-point line as they weathered an early storm from the Thunder and fought well to stay within striking distance until the fourth quarter. They stepped up on the defensive end and rode the screaming fans to run past the Thunder with ease in the end.

Looking at the betting trends, Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games and 5-10 SU in its last 15 games against Indiana, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.

Why the Indiana Pacers will win

• The Thunder have lost each of their last seven NBA Finals road games.
• The Pacers have won nine of their last 12 games as underdogs.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The home team has covered the spread in nine of the Thunder’s last 10 games.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 11 night games following a road loss.
• The Pacers have lost each of their last 10 games against Northwest Division opponents after winning as underdogs.
• The Pacers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games after winning as underdogs.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last four games as favorites against the Pacers following a loss.

Indiana Pacers Player Facts

• Tyrese Haliburton ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assist:turnover ratio (5.6) this season.
• Myles Turner ranks 1st in the Eastern Conference amongst qualified players for Blocks Per Game (2.0) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (32.7) this season.
• Cason Wallace ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.8) this season.

The Pacers clearly hold all the momentum in the series, and they know that they are just one win away from taking a commanding 3-1 series lead. However, it would be foolish to expect anything but a desperate effort from the Thunder who now have their backs against the wall. The Pacers are certainly tempting again as the underdogs, and we did cash in on that in the last game, but the Thunder simply need this more.

The Pacers have been slow starters in this series, and they were able to get back into the contest in Game 3 due to plenty of help from their bench players. However, I just don’t see the Thunder making the same mistakes if they can get off to another quick start. You can make an argument for either side, but I think this series is going the distance, starting with the Thunder earning the win and cover in this spot.

Peter Tran's Free Pick: Oklahoma City -5.5

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