Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) vs. San Antonio Spurs (62-20)
May 12, 2026 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: San Antonio Spurs -10.5; Over/Under: 218.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The San Antonio Spurs and the Minnesota Timberwolves duke it out in Game 5 of the West Semifinals at the Target Center on Tuesday night. Here’s a Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction. This article will include a Spurs vs. Timberwolves Pick.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview
The San Antonio Spurs will be kicking themselves after missing out on a crucial chance to extend their lead in the series after coming up just short to the Timberwolves in a 114-109 road defeat in Game 4 on Sunday. De’Aaron Fox led the starters with 24 points on eight of 23 shooting; Dylan Harper provided the spark off the bench with 24 points on eight of 11 shooting, while Stephon Castle chipped in with 20 points, six rebounds and four assists. As a team, the Spurs shot 48 percent from the field and six of 26 from the 3-point line as they recovered from a slow start and worked hard to take a narrow lead late in the fourth quarter before the Timberwolves responded with a crucial 7-0 run to slip through their fingers at the end. The biggest story of the night was the ejection of Victor Wembenyama for his elbow on Naz Reid.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves needed something to go their way after dropping two games in a row and they were able to capitalize on the ejection of the Spurs’ Wembenyama to escape with a crucial win in Game 4 to square up the series. Anthony Edwards led the way with 36 points on 13 of 22 shooting; Naz Reid added 15 points with nine rebounds and four assists off the bench; Jaden McDaniels scored 14 points, while Rudy Gobert tallied 11 points with 13 rebounds and four assists. As a team, the Timberwolves shot 45 percent from the field and 10 of 27 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 34 points in the first quarter to take the early lead, but this game remained close throughout and it was still anyone’s game until the fourth quarter, where Edwards scored 16 points to carry the Timberwolves over the line.
Why the San Antonio Spurs will win
- The Spurs have won each of their last 10 games following a loss.
- The Timberwolves have lost 13 of their last 15 road games against Spurs teams that held a winning record.
- The Spurs have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games following a loss.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as road underdogs after winning as underdogs.
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win
- The Spurs have lost three of their last four Western Conference Semifinals games as home favorites against Northwest Division opponents.
- The Timberwolves have won four of their last six games as underdogs against Southwest Division opponents.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread in four of their last five games as road underdogs against the Spurs.
- The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against the Timberwolves after losing as favorites.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of the Spurs’ last eight Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of the Timberwolves’ last six Western Conference Semifinals games have gone OVER the total points line.
San Antonio Spurs Player Facts
- Victor Wembanyama ranks 1st amongst qualified players for blocks per game (3.1) this season.
- Luke Kornet has recorded 43 games with 1+ assists and zero turnovers this season—most of any player in the league.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Rudy Gobert ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (68.2%) this season.
- Ayo Dosunmu is one of only two players to have scored 40+ points off the bench in a game this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.9).
- The Spurs rank 1st in the league for H1 points per game this season (62.2).
- The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (12.1).
- The Timberwolves have used only 14 different starting fives this season—the fewest in the league.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Prediction
The Spurs are keeping an eye on De’Aaron Fox, who is questionable with left ankle soreness but the good news is that Victor Wembanyama did not get suspended and is available, while the Timberwolves are again without Donte DiVincenzo. The Spurs will be disappointed that they surrendered the series lead in Game 4, but you could say that they are lucky to have Wembanyama on the court for Game 5, as he could have easily been suspended.
The Timberwolves did what they needed to do to breathe life into the series in front of their home fans and they are going to need another big game from Edwards if they want to pull off the upset in this one. The Spurs almost pulled off the upset on the road in Game 4 despite the early exit of Wembenyama and I expect them to get the job done in this one, but the line just seems a little too hefty for me. The Spurs could get the blowout win at home, but I think the more likely scenario is that the Timberwolves battle to the end to keep this within 10 points.
