Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) vs. San Antonio Spurs (62-20)
May 24, 2026 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: San Antonio Spurs -1.5; Over/Under: 218.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder duke it out in a pivotal Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals at the Frost Bank Center on Sunday night. Here’s a Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Spurs vs. Thunder Pick.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview
The San Antonio Spurs will be hoping to square up the series at 2-2 after falling well short against the Thunder in a tough 123-108 home defeat in Game 3 on Friday night. Victor Wembanyama led the team with 26 points on eight of 15 shooting; Devin Vassell added 20 points with seven rebounds and four steals; De’Aaron Fox contributed 15 points with seven rebounds and six assists, while Stephon Castle chipped in with 14 points and seven assists on one of eight shooting from the field.
As a team, the Spurs shot 43 percent from the field and 13 of 41 from the 3-point line as they got off to a terrific start and opened the game with a 15-0 run but they couldn’t maintain that pace and were already trailing by nine points at halftime. We kept waiting for the Spurs to go on another run to make it a contest, but they always trailed in the second half, where they allowed 65 points. The Spurs got next to nothing from their reserves, with Dylan Harper leading the bench players with just six points on two of seven shooting from the field.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be feeling pretty good about themselves after they reclaimed the series lead with a dominant road win in Game 3 on Friday night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 26 points and 12 assists; Jared McCain provided a real spark off the bench with 24 points on 10 of 21 shooting; Jaylin Williams scored 18 points while Alex Caruso chipped in with 15 points.
As a team, the Thunder shot 48 percent from the field and an efficient 17 of 38 from the 3-point line as they weathered an early barrage from the Spurs and overcame an early 15-point deficit before they caught fire with 37 points in the third quarter to pull ahead and win rather comfortably in the end. The Thunder’s starters didn’t have their best game, but the reserves were the difference as they outscored the Spurs’ reserves by 76-23.
Why the San Antonio Spurs will win
- The Spurs have won each of their last 10 games after losing as favorites.
- The Thunder have lost 13 of their last 16 Western Conference Finals road games following a win.
- The Spurs have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games after losing as favorites.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six Western Conference Finals road games.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last nine Game 4s of a playoff series.
- The Spurs have lost nine of their last 10 Western Conference Finals games following a loss.
- The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine Western Conference Finals games following a loss.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in five of their last six playoff games against the Spurs.
Total Points: Facts
- Each of the Spurs’ last eight games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Thunder’s last seven road games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the last seven Western Conference Finals games have gone OVER the total points line.
San Antonio Spurs Player Facts
- Victor Wembanyama ranks 1st amongst qualified players for blocks per game (3.1) this season.
- Luke Kornet has recorded 39 games with 1+ assists and zero turnovers this season—most of any player in the league.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only player in the league to have recorded 15+ assists without a turnover in a game this season.
- Cason Wallace ranks 1st in the Western Conference amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.9) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.9).
- The Spurs rank 1st in the league for H1 points per game this season (62.2).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+11.1).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent field goal percentage this season (43.7%).
Spurs vs Thunder Prediction
The Thunder have ruled out Ajay Mitchell with a calf strain and they are keeping an eye on Jalen Williams, who is questionable with a hamstring injury, while the Spurs have ruled out David Jones Garcia again. The Thunder didn’t panic after getting off to a nightmare start on Friday night and now they are in prime position to take a commanding 3-1 series lead heading back home, so the pressure is definitely on the Spurs to respond after falling well short in Game 3.
It’s not like the Thunder have figured out how to defend the Spurs’ Wembenyama, but they have dominated all the minutes when Wembenyama is on the bench, so it’s up to the Spurs’ role players to step up at home in their biggest game of the season. I want to believe that the Spurs bounce back here and claim a much-needed win, but the Thunder are clearly the deeper team and I think they get the job done once again as the minor road underdogs.
