Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction 5/7/25 NBA Picks Today

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview

The Denver Nuggets were coming into this round fresh off a seven-game series win over the Clippers and are now sitting pretty in the second round after sneaking past the Thunder in a thrilling 121-119 comeback win in Game 1 on Monday. Nikola Jokic led the team with 42 points, 22 rebounds and six assists on 15 of 29 shooting, Aaron Gordon added 22 points with 14 rebounds, Jamal Murray scored 21 points while Russell Westbrook tallied 18 points off the bench.

As a team, the Nuggets shot 44 percent from the field and 10 of 32 from the 3-point line as they struggled to get going and trailed by as many as 14 points in the third quarter. Before they clicked into gear and poured in 36 points in the fourth quarter to snatch the game away in the final seconds thanks to Gordon, who drained the game-winner with just 2.8 seconds left on the clock.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder must have been brimming with confidence after they swept the Grizzlies in the first round, but they suddenly have their backs against the wall after getting stunned by the Nuggets in Game 1 on Monday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 33 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists on 12 of 26 shooting. Alex Caruso provided a real spark off the bench with 20 points, six assists, and five steals. Jalen Williams scored 16 points with seven rebounds and four assists, while Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein chipped in with 12 points each.

As a team, the Thunder shot 42 percent from the field and 15 of 43 from the 3-point line as they poured in 60 points in the first half to lead by double digits for most of the contest. However, despite their best efforts on defense, they couldn’t hold off the Nuggets down the stretch. Holmgren played a solid game, but he missed two crucial free throws with 9.1 seconds left on the clock, leaving the door open for the Nuggets to steal the game at the end.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last seven games against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.
• The Nuggets have lost each of their last four road games after winning as underdogs.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in eight of their last nine night games at Paycom Center.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games after winning as underdogs.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Nuggets and Thunder.
• The Thunder have lost each of their last three Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against the Nuggets after losing as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between the Nuggets and Thunder.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (32.7) this season.
• Cason Wallace ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.8) this season.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Nikola Jokic is the only qualified player in the league averaging at least 25.0 points, 10.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds this season.
• Christian Braun ranks 1st in the league for fast break points (403) this season.

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction

The Nuggets were double-digit underdogs at the start of Game 1, but were able to pull off the big upset thanks to a monster game from Jokic and another game-winner from Gordon, who has now made two in these playoffs. The Thunder will be so disappointed with the result on Monday, as they played excellent defense almost the entire game, but they got outrebounded by 63-43. Holmgren just couldn’t make the final two free throws of the game with just 2.8 seconds remaining.

The pressure is now all on the Thunder to avoid falling into a 2-0 series deficit going on the road. The Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, while the Thunder are 0-3 ATS in their last three games. The Thunder are desperate to square up the series and I think they make the adjustments to grab the crucial victory, but I like the Nuggets to hang tough and make this interesting at the end.