Thunder vs Rockets Prediction 10/21/25 NBA Picks Today

The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Monday in NBA action at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Thunder vs Rockets Prediction. This article will include a Thunder vs Rockets Pick.

Houston Rockets Betting Preview

The Houston Rockets won 52 games last season and enter this year as a legit title contender. The Rockets look to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the 2019-20 season.

The Rockets retain their young core in Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith Jr., and they made a big splash by adding Kevin Durant. It’s the sort of move that elevates the Rockets title chances, as it provides Houston with an elite bucket getter and somebody in the locker room who has been where they’re trying to get. The injury to Fred VanVleet is a blow to this Rockets squad, but overall, there’s youth, athleticism, defense, and depth to emerge as a top-four team in the West and make a deep playoff push. The Rockets should win 50-plus games for a second straight season. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder have improved their win total in each of the last five years and are coming off an NBA title. The Thunder enter this year comfortably as the title favorites yet again.

The Thunder return the core that got it done a few months ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is arguably the best player in the world, Chet Holmgren is a young talented big who is coming into his own and guys like Luguentz Dort and Jalen Williams bring versatility. Alex Caruso is also one of the best bench players in the league. The Thunder showed just how dominant they are when everybody is rolling. Assuming health is on their side, the Thunder will be the team to beat for a second straight season.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Rockets have lost each of their last seven season openers.
• The Thunder have won each of their last nine Tuesday games at Paycom Center.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Tuesday games.

Why the Houston Rockets will win

• The Thunder have lost each of their last four home openers against Western Conference opponents.
• The Rockets have won each of their last three night games against Northwest Division opponents.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home openers against Western Conference opponents.
• The Rockets have covered the spread in three of their last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Rockets’ last 12 games against Northwest Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eight of the Thunder’s last nine season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranked 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (32.7) last season.
• Isaiah Hartenstein recorded the most three-point field goal attempts without a make (19) of any player in the league last season.

Houston Rockets Player Facts

• Steven Adams ranked 1st amongst qualified players for rebounds per 36 minutes (14.8) last season.
• Kevin Durant was the only qualified player in the league to have led their team in blocks per game (1.2) and three-point shooting percentage (43.0%) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Thunder ranked 1st in the league for point differential per game last season (+12.9).
• The Thunder ranked 1st in the league for steals per game last season (10.3).
• The Rockets ranked 1st in the league for rebounds per game last season (48.5).
• The Rockets ranked 1st in the league for offensive rebounds per game last season (14.6).

Thunder vs Rockets Injury Report

The Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet due to a knee injury.

The Thunder will be without Thomas Sorber and Kenrich Williams due to knee injuries. Nikola Topic is out with a groin injury.

Thunder vs Rockets Prediction

The Thunder have been cash cows over the last two years, and it’s hard to make a case against them with the success they’ve had. However, it’s banner night for a young team, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them come out a bit sluggish. Also, the Rockets are a feisty team that plays with a chip on its shoulder, and I’m sure they’ll be up for this game with a point to prove. I’m sure Durant will be motivated as well, seeing his former team giving out rings. I’ll take a stab with the points here.