Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction 5/26/25 NBA Picks Today

The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves collide in a pivotal Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals at the Target Center on Monday night. Here’s a Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Timberwolves vs Thunder Pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves in a bit of trouble for the first time in this series after getting thrashed by the Timberwolves in a 143-101 road defeat in Game 3 on Saturday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough game as he scored just 14 points with six assists, Jalen Williams added 13 points while Chet Holmgren chipped in with just 10 points.

As a team, the Thunder shot just 40 percent from the field and 14 of 44 from the 3-point line as they got off to a nightmare of a start and were never really in the contest after getting outscored by 72-41 going into halftime. You would’ve expected a bit of a fight back from the Thunder in garbage time, but things only got worse in the second half, where the Thunder trailed by as many as 45 points at one stage. Isaiah Joe had a night to forget as he shot just one of seven for his two points, while Jaylin Williams shot zero of six for his two points.

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves needed to respond after dropping the first two games of the series and they did just that with a dominant win at home in Game 3. Anthony Edwards led the team with 30 points, nine rebounds and six assists on 12 of 17 shooting, Julius Randle snapped out of a mini slump with 24 points on nine of 15 shooting while Terrence Shannon Jr chipped in with 15 points off the bench.

As a team, the Timberwolves shot a sizzling 57 percent from the field and 20 of 40 from the 3-point line as they stormed out of the gates and never looked in any danger after outscoring the Thunder by 34-14 in the first quarter. It was obvious from the start that the Timberwolves were the more desperate team as they dominated the boards by 50-31 and never took their foot off the gas despite having the game wrapped up by halftime.

Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win

• The home team has won each of the Thunder’s last six games.
• The Thunder have lost 10 of their last 11 playoff road games against Northwest Division opponents.
• The Timberwolves have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as home underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven road games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 10 games against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.
• The Timberwolves have lost each of their six previous Western Conference Finals games following a win.
• The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 home games after winning as underdogs.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in eight of their last nine night games following a road loss.

Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts

• Rudy Gobert ranks 1st in the Western Conference amongst qualified players for FG% (66.9%) this season.
• Anthony Edwards ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made Per Game (4.1) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (32.7) this season.
• Cason Wallace ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.8) this season.

Timberwolves vs Thunder Prediction

The Thunder didn’t come out with any sense of urgency in Game 3 and quickly found themselves in deep water right away as the Timberwolves took control and never let go. Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t able to get anything going all night, but the more worrying sign was their lackluster effort on the defensive end. I still don’t give the Timberwolves much of a chance in this series as they will have to win on the road against a Thunder squad who are 7-1 at home during these playoffs.

However, the Timberwolves should be good enough to square up this series or at least take this one down to the wire. You can make an argument for either side here, but the Timberwolves are a different team at home and I think they can maintain the momentum with another upset win at home, where they have won 10 of their last 11 games.