The situation in the AFC has changed since Tom Brady left the New England Patriots. The Pats won three of the last seven AFC Championships and four of the previous nine, but all with Brady as a signal caller. Now, the Kansas City Chiefs dominate the conference, winning three of the last four conference titles, and are the biggest favorites to win the 2023-24 AFC Championship. The new NFL season is quickly approaching, so let’s have a look at the 2023-24 AFC Championship Odds, Favorites, and Best Bet.

2023-24 AFC Championship Odds

 

SELECTION	ODDS
Kansas City Chiefs	+350
Buffalo Bills	+450
Cincinnati Bengals	+500
Baltimore Ravens	+1000
New York Jets	+1000
Miami Dolphins	+1200
Los Angeles Chargers	+1300
Jacksonville Jaguars	+1500
Cleveland Browns	+1700
Pittsburgh Steelers	+2500
New England Patriots	+3000
Denver Broncos	+3000
Las Vegas Raiders	+4500
Tennessee Titans	+5500
Indianapolis Colts	+6500
Houston Texans	+8500

 

2023-24 AFC Championship Favorites

 

Kansas City Chiefs (+350)

It’s no surprise the Kansas City Chiefs are the most serious candidates to defend the AFC Championship this season. The reigning NFL champs topped the AFC last year with a 14-3 record and then went on to Super Bowl to win the second title in four years.

Head coach Andy Reid is leading this team since 2013. He is the main reason the Chiefs created a new dynasty in the NFL, and they will be looking to do what the New England Patriots have done under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in the first two decades of this century. The Pats had Brady, while the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes – the best quarterback in the NFL.

Mahomes’ connection with tight end Travis Kelce is Kansas’ biggest quality on offense. The two connected for 47 touchdowns in the last five years (since Mahomes became a starter). It’s clear that is the right recipe for winning championships. Just remember how good Brady and Rob Gronkowski were together at New England.

Even though Mahomes doesn’t have star wideouts on his offense, his ability to make something out of nothing and his versatility are unmatched. Last season, Kansas City led the NFL with 29.2 points per game and had the best pass offense that averaged 297.8 YPG. The Chiefs’ average defense allowed 21.7 PPG (16th), but that didn’t hurt them in the Super Bowl quest. The team’s core remained the same this year, so it isn’t strange the Chiefs are again the biggest 2023-24 AFC Championship favorites.

Buffalo Bills (+450)

The Buffalo Bills will have one more chance to win the AFC Championship and reach Super Bowl as their window becomes tighter. For me, they are the biggest losers in the past few years – always flirting with the title but failing to make it to the Super Bowl. The Bills made the postseason for four consecutive years, but only once they played in the AFC Championship game. It was in the 2020-21 season – their first conference title game since 1993.

They have talent, though. QB Josh Allen threw for 4,000+ yards and 35+ touchdowns each of the previous three seasons. WR Stefon Diggs registered over 4,000 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns in that span. The connection between these two is shoulder-to-shoulder with the one between Mahomes and Kelce.   

It seems the Bills have a more talented offense than the Chiefs, at least on paper. WR Gabe Davis and TE Dawson Knox are Allen’s weapons on offense, while the defense is one of the best in the league. Although not in the Top 5 in both the pass and run offense last season, the Bills did have the second-best offense that averaged 28.4 PPG and the second-best defense that allowed 17.9 PPG.

Although every player of Buffalo’s offensive core is under 30, it looks like it could be this group’s final attempt to win SB before the franchise hits a rebuild button. Their AFC East division improved in the last two years, so it won’t be easy to win it again. Still, the Bills should be good enough for 12+ victories. The odds are a bit higher on them to win the AFC, but in my opinion, the Bills are equal 2023-24 AFC Championship favorites as the Chiefs.

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Baltimore Ravens (+1000)

The Baltimore Ravens won the AFC Championship twice in franchise history. Each time, they also won Super Bowl. However, they didn’t reach the AFC Championship game since 2012 but are back in the picture since the arrival of Lamar Jackson. Baltimore made it to the postseason in four of the last five years, and now, its offense looks improved.

The Ravens have relied on their run offense and rock-solid defense in the last few seasons. It’s mostly because Jackson is not a great passer but is an outstanding athlete with incredible feet. John Harbaugh’s team was 2nd in rushing yards per game with 160.0 last year, while his defense was 3rd with 18.5 points allowed.

That D will be among the Top 5 in the upcoming campaign, but the offense received a significant boost with the arrivals of WR Odell Beckham Jr., Nelson Agholor, and rookie Zay Flowers. Beckham didn’t play a single game in 2022 and failed to reach a 1,000-yard mark since 2019. Even so, there is growing optimism in Baltimore that OBJ can revive his career under Harbaugh. Alongside these three wideouts, Jackson has tight end Mark Andrews – a reliable target in recent years.

The Ravens have fierce competition with the Cincinnati Bengals, so it will be extremely hard to win the AFC North. However, they are still considered the 2023-24 AFC Championship Favorites.

New York Jets (+1000)

The New York Jets didn’t play in the playoffs since the 2010-11 season and had only one winning season in that stretch (2015-16). They selected some first-class picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, resulting in improvement as they finished the last season with a 7-10 record. WR Garrett Wilson and CB Sauce Gardner won the Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year Awards, respectively. That’s a fantastic sign for this franchise, and the fans have even more reasons to be hopeful this season.

Namely, the Jets signed veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers and reunited him with wide receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. Also, the Jets hired Nathaniel Hackett as a new offensive coordinator. Hackett and Rodgers worked together at Green Bay, and back then, A-Rod was the league MVP, while the Packers had the best offense in the NFL.

Undoubtedly, these arrivals will improve New York’s pathetic 2022 offense, which averaged 17.4 PPG (29th). Running back Breece Hall is healthy again, while WR Mecole Hardman Jr. came from Kansas City. The defense, though, was way better. New York had the 4th best D that allowed 18.6 PPG, and I believe it can remain in the Top 5 next season, especially after the Jets selected DE Will McDonald IV with the 15th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

2023-24 AFC Championship Best Bet

 

Cincinnati Bengals (+500)

The Cincinnati Bengals have become one of the strongest teams in the NFL in the last couple of years. They have a special talent in quarterback Joe Burrow, who led the team to Super Bowl two years ago, and to the AFC Championship game last season. Cincy lost both games, but it looks the Bengals are finally ready to make that final step and win the first title in the franchise’s history.

Although their offense wasn’t even in the Top 5 last year (averaged 26.1 PPG), I think the Bengals have the most talented offense in the NFL. With Burrow under the center and Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon as his weapons, I think the Bengals will at least reach another AFC Championship game. Four of them were on the receiving end of 23 of Burrow’s 35 passing touchdowns last season, and that number could be even higher this time out. I am backing the young QB to register 40+ TDs in the 2023-24 campaign.

While the defense was solid overall, it seems the secondary is Cincinnati’s biggest problem. The pass defense allowed 229.1 YPG last year and wasn’t in the Top 20. On the contrary, the run defense was 6th in the NFL, with 106.6 YPG allowed. If the Bengals can improve their secondary and limit the opposite receivers to around 200 YPG, I’m certain they will go all the way. The Bengals are my 2023-24 AFC Championship Best Bet.