Falcons vs Dolphins Prediction 10/26/25 NFL Picks Today

The Miami Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons meet Sunday in NFL action from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here’s a Falcons vs Dolphins prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Falcons vs Dolphins pick.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Dolphins have had a pretty rough season so far. Miami took losses in each of their first three games, starting with a blowout road defeat at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts. Miami lost to the Patriots and Buffalo Bills in the next two games, then finally got a win 27-21 over the lowly New York Jets on September 29. The next week however, it was back to the loss column for Miami as they fell to the Carolina Panthers then the Los Angeles Chargers. In that October 12 defeat, the Dolphins offense managed three interceptions and a rough 5-of-11 success rate on third-down tries. On defense Miami gave up 403 total yards and 20 first downs.

In last weekend’s matchup with the Cleveland Browns, the Dolphins were outscored 17-6 in the first half alone. Miami couldn’t find the scoreboard after the break either, logging an eventual 31-6 loss on the road after allowing points in every quarter. QB Tua Tagovailoa finished 12-of-23 for 100 yards and three interceptions. Leading rusher De’Von Achane carried 13 times for 82 yards, and D’Wayne Eskridge had two catches for 45 yards to lead the receivers in the losing road effort. Malik Washington added five catches for 30 yards as well.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

Over on the Falcons’ side, they opened up the season with a tough home loss, falling 23-20 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Atlanta would rebound with a nice road win over the Vikings in week two, then the team got blown out 30-0 on the road versus the Panthers. The Falcons managed to power out a 34-27 win over the Washington Commanders after that, then took out the Buffalo Bills in a somewhat surprising result on October 13. In that victory Atlanta got 443 yards from their offense with 210 rushing yards, 6.7 yards per play and 22 first downs but the team went just 5-of-12 on third-down tries. The defense came up with a couple of picks though, and held Buffalo to just 2-of-9 on their third-down conversion attempts.

The Falcons took on the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday evening. Atlanta was looking at a seven-point deficit heading into the second half. The Falcons got to within three points but then got shut out in the fourth quarter during an eventual road loss 20-10. QB Michael Penix was 21-of-38 for 241 yards and a TD. Tops in rushing was Bijan Robinson with 40 yards off 14 carries, and Darnell Mooney caught three balls for 68 yards. Close behind was Kyle Pitts with seven grabs for 62 yards in the road defeat.

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 8

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Dolphins have lost each of their last 10 Sunday games as road underdogs.
• The home team has won each of the Falcons’ last four games.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six October games as road underdogs.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the Dolphins’ last four games.
• The Falcons have won the first quarter in four of their last five games against AFC opponents.
• The Falcons have won the first half in 10 of their last 11 Sunday games against the Dolphins.
• The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four home games against AFC opponents.

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Falcons’ last five games.
• The Falcons have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in nine of the Falcons’ last 10 Week 8 games.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine October games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have won the first quarter in three of their last four games as underdogs against NFC South opponents.
• The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last four games against NFC South opponents.
• The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games played on the East Coast.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Dolphins’ last 12 games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Falcons’ last 10 home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Bijan Robinson has scored two touchdowns in three of the Falcons’ last four day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last six home games.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 38+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six October appearances.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 86+ rushing yards in five of the Falcons’ last six games as home favorites.
• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 250+ passing yards in each of the Falcons’ last four home games.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 38+ receiving yards in each of his last six October appearances.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in each of his last eight October home appearances.
• Heading into Week 8, Bijan Robinson has recorded the longest touchdown reception of the season (81 vs Bills, Week 6).

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last 10 Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 77+ rushing yards in each of his four previous October appearances with the Dolphins as underdogs.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 198+ passing yards in each of his last 19 appearances against NFC opponents.
• Jaylen Waddle has recorded 57+ receiving yards in five of his last six appearances with the Dolphins as underdogs following a road loss.
• Jaylen Waddle has recorded 83+ rushing and receiving yards in four of the Dolphins’ last five games against NFC South opponents.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 21+ completions in each of his last 10 appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• Heading into Week 8, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (3 vs Chargers, Week 6).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 8, the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (141.2) this season.
• Heading into Week 8, the Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in average kickoff return (20.9 yards) this season.
• Heading into Week 8, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (159.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 8, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (88.9%) this season.

Falcons vs Dolphins Prediction

I’ll go with Atlanta. I’m probably avoiding this one though; there’s not much to get excited about with both teams coming off fairly listless losses. The Falcons offense generated 292 yards in their loss to San Francisco last weekend, with 230 of those coming through the air. The 5-of-11 result on third downs wasn’t great, which helped Atlanta reach a tepid 19 first downs throughout the game. Defensively the Falcons were pretty good against the pass (150 yards) but allowed 9-of-15 on third downs and 23 third downs along the way. It was Atlanta’s lowest points total (10) since getting shut out by the Panthers back on September 21.

As for Miami, not too many things went well during their weekend loss to Cleveland. The Dolphins mustered just 219 yards on offense with 12 first downs, 1-of-13 on third downs and a whopping four turnovers—not to mention 11 penalties. It’s tough to imagine a great effort this weekend.