Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
October 3, 2024 8:15 pm EDT
The Line: Atlanta Falcons -1.5; Over/Under: 43.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons meet Thursday in week 5 NFL action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here’s an Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction. This article will include an Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Eagles, lost to the Broncos, and they play the Saints next. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won 4 straight regular-season road games. Baker Mayfield is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 984 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have combined for 536 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, while Rachaad White has 14 receptions.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ground game is averaging 96 yards per contest, and Bucky Irving leads the way with 203 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Tampa Bay is allowing 19.5 points and 335.3 yards per game. Jamel Dean leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 33 tackles, Lavonte David has 2 sacks and Zyon McCollum has 1 interception.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview
The Atlanta Falcons lost to the Chiefs, beat the Saints, and play the Panthers next. The Atlanta Falcons have lost 2 of their first 3 home games. Kirk Cousins is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 864 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Darnell Mooney and Drake London have combined for 425 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Ray-Ray McCloud III has 15 receptions.
The Atlanta Falcons ground game is averaging 102.8 yards per contest, and Bijan Robinson leads the way with 224 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Atlanta is allowing 21.3 points and 336.5 yards per game. Troy Andersen leads the Atlanta Falcons with 44 tackles, Matthew Judon has 1.5 sacks and Jessie Bates III has 1 interception.
Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win
- The Buccaneers have won each of their last four games played as underdogs on the East Coast.
- The Falcons have lost five of their last six October games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven October games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games against NFC opponents.
- The Buccaneers have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as underdogs.
- The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last eight games as road underdogs against NFC South opponents.
- The Buccaneers have won the first half in each of their last four games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Pitts has scored a touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last three October home games against NFC opponents.
- Kirk Cousins has thrown two or more touchdowns in seven of his last eight Thursday appearances.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 232+ passing yards in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a home favorite against NFC opponents.
- Darnell Mooney has recorded 43+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 home appearances against division opponents.
- Darnell Mooney has recorded 43+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 home appearances against division opponents.
- Tyler Allgeier has recorded 39+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons’ last 12 home games against NFC opponents.
- Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in each of his last seven October home appearances against NFC opponents.
- Troy Andersen has recorded the most tackles in a single game this season (17 vs Saints, Week 4).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts
- Rachaad White has scored a touchdown in four of the Buccaneers’ last five games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
- Baker Mayfield has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Buccaneers’ last six games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
- Rachaad White has recorded 39+ rushing yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last six games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
- Chris Godwin has recorded 69+ receiving yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last four regular season games as underdogs.
- Baker Mayfield has recorded 283+ passing yards in five of the Buccaneers’ last six games as underdogs.
- Rachaad White has recorded 66+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last six games against NFC South opponents.
- Baker Mayfield has recorded 24+ completions in four of the Buccaneers’ last five games.
- Baker Mayfield has recorded the equal-most passing touchdowns in a single game this season (4 vs Commanders, Week 1).
Matchup/League Facts
- The Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in sacks (4.0) this season.
- The Falcons rank T31st in the NFL in forced fumbles (0) this season.
- The Buccaneers rank 1st in the NFL in Q2 win percentage (100.0) this season.
- The Buccaneers rank T2nd in the NFL in forced fumbles (5) this season.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
The home team usually has the edge on short weeks, but there’s not much travel between Tampa and Atlanta. The Atlanta Falcons have been competitive in every game, and a win over the Eagles and a close loss to the Chiefs earns them brownie points. The problem is the Falcons are still stuck in the mud offensively as they can’t run the ball and can’t finish drives.
The Buccaneers got Vita Vea back on the defensive line, which should improve the run defense, and the offense has above-average potential. Mayfield has played like an MVP candidate through the first month, and the Bucs have a top-10 passing attack. The Falcons are gritty, but there’s more upside with the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Falcons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. I’ll take the road dog in a game the Buccaneers could win outright.
