Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction 9/7/25 NFL Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons meet in week 1 NFL action from Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons prediction.

Matchup History

The Falcons won both meetings last season including the most recent meeting on October 27th, 2025 by a final score of 31-26, making it 4 wins in the last 5 head-to-head meetings for the Falcons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter 2025 coming off a 10-7 season in 2024 that earned them a fourth straight NFC South title, though it ended with a narrow Wild Card playoff loss. Under head coach Todd Bowles, the Bucs return the core of a balanced roster, including quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is back after a resurgent year to lead an offense featuring star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka adds another weapon to that unit. The team did make a change at offensive coordinator, hiring Josh Grizzard to keep last year’s high-scoring attack on track. Defensively, veterans like linebacker Lavonte David, nose tackle Vita Vea and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. remain anchors, and Tampa Bay made a splash by signing two-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Haason Reddick to boost the pass rush after parting ways with longtime sack leader Shaquil Barrett. With most of last season’s starters still in place and these key additions, the Buccaneers are poised to contend for another division crown and are aiming for a deeper postseason run in 2025.

Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win

• The Buccaneers have won seven of their last eight September games against NFC South opponents.
• The Falcons have lost each of their last six Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight September games against NFC South opponents.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

• Mike Evans has scored a touchdown in each of the Buccaneers’ last five Week 1 road games.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 288+ passing yards in four of the Buccaneers’ last five regular season games.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 24+ completions in each of the Buccaneers’ last three September games as favorites.
• Rachaad White has recorded 47+ rushing and receiving yards in 13 of his last 14 Sunday road appearances.
• Rachaad White has recorded 14+ receiving yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last five games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• Rachaad White has recorded 37+ rushing yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last six road games played on the East Coast.
• Baker Mayfield recorded the equal-most passing touchdowns in a single game last season (5 vs Panthers, Week 17).

Atlanta Falcons Team Preview

The Atlanta Falcons enter 2025 coming off an 8-9 season that left them second in the NFC South and outside the playoffs in Raheem Morris’s first year back as head coach. The year was defined by inconsistency, capped by a four-game losing streak and a quarterback change from veteran Kirk Cousins to rookie Michael Penix Jr. This offseason, Atlanta reshaped its roster, releasing longtime defensive leader Grady Jarrett while adding veteran pass rusher Leonard Floyd, safety Jordan Fuller, defensive tackle Morgan Fox, and return man Jamal Agnew in free agency. Key re-signings included cornerbacks Kevin King and Dee Alford, while offensive tackle Jake Matthews was extended to anchor the line. In the draft, the Falcons doubled down on pass rush with two first-round picks, selecting Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker at No. 15 and Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. at No. 26. Later selections focused on defensive backs and line depth. The coaching staff also saw change, with Jeff Ulbrich hired as defensive coordinator after Jimmy Lake’s departure. With a blend of experienced veterans, two top defensive rookies, and a new voice on defense, Atlanta aims to rebound and contend in a competitive division.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Falcons have won each of their last two games as home underdogs against NFC opponents.
• The Buccaneers have lost three of their last four games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• The Falcons have covered the spread in five of their last six games against the Buccaneers.
• The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against NFC opponents.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Bijan Robinson has scored two touchdowns in four of the Falcons’ last five games against NFC opponents.
• Kyle Pitts has recorded 47+ receiving yards in each of his six previous appearances against the Buccaneers.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 90+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons’ last six games.
• Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Falcons’ last nine games against NFC opponents.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 82+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six appearances against NFC opponents.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 315+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog against NFC opponents.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a home underdog against NFC opponents.
• Kirk Cousins recorded the most completions in a single game last season (42 vs Buccaneers, Week 5).

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Falcons’ last six games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Buccaneers’ last six games against NFC South opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eleven of the last 12 games between NFC South teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction

I’m taking Atlanta and the points here. I just think Atlanta is live in this game and I think both sides know the importance of this matchup in week 1, with the NFC South historically being one of the tightest divisions year after year in the NFL. Division home dogs in week 1 is also historically really profitable, and I think that it could pay dividends here too. Give me the Falcons and the points.