Falcons vs Commanders Prediction 9/28/25 NFL Picks Today

The Washington Commanders and the Atlanta Falcons meet Sunday in NFL action from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here’s a Falcons vs Commanders prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Falcons vs Commanders pick.

Washington Commanders Betting Preview

The Commanders have three games in the can so far this year. Washington split the first two, with an opener victory coming versus the Giants on September 7. After a 14-3 edge in the first half, the Commanders eventually powered out a 21-6 win at home. The running game was working well in that one, with Washington’s 220 rush yards helping to buoy 6.6 yards per play and 25 first downs. The 12 penalties didn’t help matters, though. In game two versus the Packers, Washington took their first defeat of the year. The Commanders allowed points in every quarter and fell 27-18 in the end despite a 15-10 edge in the final frame. Washington mustered just 230 total yards this time with a 3.5 yard average per play.

Back on Sunday versus the Las Vegas Raiders, the Commanders had a good day. Washington scored 13 points in the second quarter and 14 more in the third on the way to a 41-24 win. QB Marcus Mariota finished with 207 yards and a score on 15-of-21 passing while also posting a rushing touchdown. Jeremy McNichols carried four times for 78 yards and a TD, while Terry McLaurin had three catches for 74 yards.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

Over on the Falcons’ side, they opened up their season with a tight matchup at home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Atlanta scored points in every quarter but still fell short 23-20 in a disappointing result. The Falcons managed 358 total yards in the loss, but only 69 of those came via the rush. In game two versus the Vikings, Atlanta was able to get back to even on the year. The Falcons again scored in every quarter during a 22-6 victory. This time the Falcons managed 326 total yards and held Minnesota to just 198 on the other side.

Matched up against the Carolina Panthers last weekend, the Falcons didn’t play well—to put it lightly. Atlanta gave up points in every quarter (including 10 in both the third and fourth frames) during a 30-0 blowout shutout on the road. QB Michael Penix had 172 yards and a pair of picks on 18-of-36 passing, while Bijan Robinson led the rush with 72 yards on 13 totes. Drake London was the team’s top receiver with five catches for 55 yards, and Darnell Mooney added 44 yards on four receptions.

Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The underdogs have won three of the Falcons’ last four games.
• The Commanders have lost six of their last seven September road games against NFC opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the Commanders’ last four games.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six September road games against NFC opponents.
• The home team has won the first quarter in each of the Commanders’ last seven games.
• The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games as home underdogs.
• The home team has won the first half in each of the Commanders’ last four games.

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Commanders have won each of their last six games played on the East Coast.
• The Falcons have lost each of their last four games played on the East Coast.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last six games played on the East Coast.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Commanders have won the first half in four of their last five road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Falcons have won the first quarter in three of their last four games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Falcons’ last seven games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Commanders’ last eight road games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the last six Sunday games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last four home games.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 315+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog against NFC opponents.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 46+ receiving yards in each of his last five home appearances against NFC opponents.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of the Falcons’ last eight games following a road loss.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 86+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons’ last four games against NFC East opponents.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a home underdog against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Parker Romo has recorded the equal-most made field goals in a single game this season (5 vs Vikings, Week 2).

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Terry McLaurin has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Commanders’ last seven Sunday road games.
• Deebo Samuel has scored the last touchdown in four of his last five September appearances against NFC opponents.
• Jayden Daniels has recorded 233+ passing yards in four of his last five appearances.
• Terry McLaurin has scored two touchdowns in three of the Commanders’ last four Sunday regular season road games.
• Zach Ertz has recorded 34+ receiving yards in each of his six previous regular season appearances against the Falcons.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 59+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last nine regular season appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 11+ rushing yards in each of his nine previous appearances with his team as a favorite on the East Coast.
• Jayden Daniels has recorded 22+ completions in seven of the Commanders’ last eight games following a win.
• Heading into Week 4, Jaylin Lane ranks 1st in the NFC for punt return yards (177) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Falcons – two different players have recorded 70+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Falcons – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Commanders – three different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Commanders – three different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.

Falcons vs Commanders Prediction

I’ll stick with Washington. The Commanders are coming off a pretty nice overall effort versus a struggling Raiders team, notching 400 yards (201 rushing) with 7.4 yards per play, 17 first downs and a 5-of-10 success rate on third-down conversions. The Washington defense gave up 354 yards (93 rushing) with 17 first downs and a nice 3-of-14 on third-down tries. It was a nice bounce-back effort following a few ugly stat lines in the loss to the Packers. It was also the Commanders’ highest points total (41) so far.

As for the Falcons, they had hardly any success on offense in their latest loss to Carolina. Atlanta mustered 333 yards total (132 rushing) with 5.0 yards per play and 18 first downs. The 5-of-13 success rate on third downs and 0-of-3 on fourth downs pale in comparison only to the three turnovers. Despite the 30 points on the board the defense wasn’t too bad. Atlanta gave up 224 yards (114 passing) and just 3-of-11 on third-down tries. The Falcons can stay relatively close here if the D clamps down again, but I don’t know if the offense will follow along well enough.