Bears vs Falcons Prediction 10/18/26 NFL Picks Today

Chicago Bears (3-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
October 18, 2026 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Atlanta Falcons +1.5; Over/Under: 51.5
(Get latest betting odds)

In this article, we will formulate a Bears vs Falcons Prediction for this NFL Week 5 game on Sunday, October 18^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Atlanta Falcons Preview

The Atlanta Falcons have a 2-3 record this season are sitting on the 2nd place of the NFC South. They are coming off a 23-30 home loss against the Ravens and will face the 49ers, the Buccaneers and the Bengals next.

Offensively, the Falcons average 23.8 points per game, ranking 13th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 24.4 points per game, which is 21st. Atlanta averages 361.8 total yards per game (208.2 passing and 153.6 rushing), while allowing 328.6 total yards per game (83.2 rushing and 245.4 passing).

Michael Penix leads the Falcons with 597 passing yards with 67.5% completed passes and five touchdowns. Bijan Robinson leads the team in rushing yards with 580, while Drake London has 27 receptions for a team-high 488 receiving yards. Defensively, Xavier Watts has a team-high 34 total tackles (20 of them solo), while Za’Darius Smith leads the team in sacks, with 2.5.

Chicago Bears Preview

The Chicago Bears have a 3-2 record this season are sitting on the 2nd place of the NFC North. They are coming off a 7-31 road loss against the Packers and will face the Patriots, the Seahawks and the Buccaneers next.

Offensively, the Bears average 23.8 points per game, ranking 13th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 19.2 points per game, which is 5th. Chicago averages 392.4 total yards per game (219.2 passing and 173.2 rushing), while allowing 311.4 total yards per game (96 rushing and 215.4 passing).

Tyson Bagent leads the Bears with 409 passing yards with 65.6% completed passes and zero touchdowns. D’Andre Swift leads the team in rushing yards with 354, while Kalif Raymond has 24 receptions for a team-high 226 receiving yards. Defensively, Dillon Thieneman has a team-high 37 total tackles (20 of them solo), while Austin Booker leads the team in sacks, with 4.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

The underdogs have won five of the Falcons’ last six Week 6 games.
The Bears have lost seven of their last eight road games following a Division game.
The Bears have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight Sunday games played on the East Coast.
The Falcons have covered the spread in each of their last five games following a home loss.
The Falcons have won the first quarter in each of their last four October games as home underdogs.
The Bears have lost the first half in eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a losing record.
The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Week 6 games.

Why the Chicago Bears will win

The Falcons have lost each of their last six home games after coming off overtime.
The Bears have won each of their last five games against NFC South opponents.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine home games after coming off overtime.
The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five day games against NFC South opponents.
The Bears have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Week 6 games.
The Falcons have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
The Bears have won the first half in each of their last four games against NFC South opponents.

Total Points Facts

Eight of the Falcons’ last nine Sunday games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
Each of the Bears’ last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

Bijan Robinson has scored two touchdowns in three of the Falcons’ last four games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last five October games against NFC opponents.
Khalil Herbert has recorded 68+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his eight previous October appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in each of his last 22 appearances in games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
Khalil Herbert has recorded 72+ rushing yards in seven of his eight previous October appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
Heading into Week 6, Bijan Robinson ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (580) this season.

Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts

D’Andre Swift has scored the first touchdown in three of his four previous October appearances against NFC South opponents.
Cole Kmet has recorded 14+ receiving yards in each of his last nine appearances in day games played on the East Coast.
D’Andre Swift has recorded 73+ rushing yards in each of his last four regular season appearances against NFC South opponents.
D’Andre Swift has scored a touchdown in each of his last six October road appearances.
Cole Kmet has recorded 14+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last nine appearances in day games played on the East Coast.
Heading into Week 6, D’Andre Swift has recorded the equal-most rushing touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Panthers, Week 1).

Matchup/League Facts

Heading into Week 6, the Falcons have suffered the largest margin of defeat in the NFL this season (31-points vs Carolina on September 20, 2026).
Heading into Week 6, the Falcons have averaged 34.3 points over their last three games – most in the league over that span.
Bears – three different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 6.
Bears – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 6.