Bills vs Dolphins Prediction 9/18/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Bills vs Dolphins prediction for this NFL game on Thursday, September 18th at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 3 matchup.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 2-0 this season after they defeated the Jets by a score of 30-10 last week. Buffalo led 10-0 after the first quarter and 20-3 at the half, before coasting to the win in the second half. The Bills out gained New York by a total of 403-154, went 5-14 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Josh Allen went 14-25 for 148 yards, while James Cook rushed 21 times for 132 yards and two scores. Joshua Palmer led the receivers with two catches for 47 yards in the game. The Buffalo defense recorded four sacks and five tackles for loss in the victory. 

Buffalo started the season with a 41-40 win over Baltimore in week one, as they were able to complete a crazy comeback in the fourth quarter. The Bills are averaging 35.5 points per game with 284.0 passing yards and 166.0 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 25.0 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has completed 66.2% of his passes for 542 yards and two touchdowns, while Keon Coleman has caught 11 passes for 138 yards and one score. James Cook has led the ground game with 176 yards and three touchdowns on 34 carries this year. 

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins are 0-2 this year after they lost to New England by a score of 33-27 last week. Miami trailed 12-0 after the first quarter and 15-14 at the half, but they did lead 27-23 in the fourth quarter, before allowing the last 10 points for the loss. The Dolphins out gained NE by a total of 358-333, went 4-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Tua Tagovailoa went 26-32 for 315 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while De’Von Achane rushed 11 times for 30 yards. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with six catches for 109 yards in the loss. The Miami defense recorded three sacks and four tackles for loss in the game. 

Miami started their 2025 season with a 33-8 loss to Indianapolis in week one. The Dolphins are averaging 17.5 points per game with 215.0 passing yards and 69.5 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 33.0 points against per game on defense. Tua Tagovailoa has completed 72.7% of his passes for 429 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Tyreek Hill has caught 10 passes for 149 yards. De’Von Achane is the leading rusher with 85 yards on 18 carries this season. 

Why the Dolphins will beat the Bills

• The underdogs have won each of the Bills’ last two games at Highmark Stadium.
• The Bills have lost five of their seven previous Thursday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last five Week 3 games against AFC opponents.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three Thursday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have won the first half in each of the last three games between the Dolphins and Bills.
• The Bills have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Dolphins’ last eight games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Bills’ last seven Thursday games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Nine of the last 11 games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• Josh Allen has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Bills’ last six September home games against AFC opponents.
• Josh Palmer has recorded 36+ receiving yards in 13 of his last 14 appearances against division opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 39+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last four September games as favorites.
• Josh Allen has recorded 263+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last six September home games against AFC opponents.
• James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last seven regular season games against AFC opponents.
• Curtis Samuel has recorded 22+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his six previous Week 3 appearances.
• Heading into Week 3, James Cook ranks T1st in the NFL in touchdowns (3) this season.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 25+ completions in each of his last four appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 315+ passing yards in each of his last three appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Tyreek Hill has recorded 74+ receiving yards in each of his six previous Thursday road appearances.
• De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last eight games played on the East Coast.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 56+ rushing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last six games played as underdogs on the East Coast.
• Jaylen Waddle has recorded 68+ rushing and receiving yards in four of the Dolphins’ last five September games against AFC East opponents.
• Heading into Week 3, Jaelan Phillips ranks T2nd in the NFL in quarterback hurries (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bills – two different players have recorded multi-touchdown games this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Bills – two different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Dolphins – three different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Dolphins – two different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.

David Racey is 6-3 (67%) in his last nine NFL plays this season. Click here for his premium plays for this week!

Bills vs Dolphins Prediction 

Buffalo comes into this matchup with the home field advantage and much more momentum than Miami has to start the year. The Bills have scored 71 points in two games and their defense was great last week against the Jets. Miami was dominated in week one against the Colts and while they did show more life in week two, they still allowed 33 points to the Patriots. Buffalo is a huge favorite in this contest and I understand why, but I am taking the Dolphins here. I still feel like Miami is much better than they have shown through two games and I like how Tua played last week, completing 26-32 passes. Take the Dolphins and the points here.