Bills vs Patriots Prediction 10/4/26 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Bills vs Patriots prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, October 4th at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 4 matchup.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 this season after they defeated the Chargers by a score of 24-16 last week. Buffalo was tied 10-10 at halftime, but they trailed 13-10 in the fourth, before scoring 14 points in the final quarter for the win. The Bills out gained LA by a total of 350-348, went 6-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 5-1 in the game. Josh Allen threw for 204 yards and two interceptions, while DJ Moore caught six passes for 67 yards. James Cook III rushed 24 times for 154 yards and one touchdown in the win. 

Prior to that game, Buffalo defeated the Lions by a score of 41-31 and the Texans by a score of 36-31. The Bills have scored 33.7 points per game with 246.7 passing yards and 155.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 26.0 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has thrown for 786 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions, while James Cook has rushed for 346 yards and two scores this season. 

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The New England Patriots are 1-2 this year after they lost to the Jaguars by a score of 35-6 last week. New England trailed 14-3 at halftime and they allowed 21 points in the second half for the ugly loss. The Patriots out gained Jacksonville by a total of 317-315, went 4-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-1 in the game. Drake Maye threw for 199 yards and two interceptions, while Mack Hollins caught six passes for 87 yards. TreVeyon Henderson rushed eight times for 23 yards in the game. 

Prior to that loss, New England defeated the Steelers by a score of 20-3, but lost to the Seahawks by a score of 13-10 before that. The Patriots have scored 12.0 points per game with 197.7 passing yards and 109.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 17.0 points against per game this season. Drake Maye has thrown for 585 yards with one touchdown and six interceptions, while Mack Hollins has 12 receptions for 156 yards this year. 

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won each of their last 13 home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Patriots have lost each of their last four Week 4 road games.
• The home team has covered the spread in seven of the Patriots’ last eight Week 4 games.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six Week 4 road games.
• The favorites have won the first half in eight of the Bills’ last nine Week 4 games.
• The home team has won the first quarter in each of the Bills’ last five Week 4 games.
• The Bills have scored the first touchdown in 15 of their last 20 home games against AFC East opponents.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Patriots have won each of their last six October road games against the Bills.
• The Bills have lost five of their last seven games as favorites without Dalton Kincaid.
• The Patriots have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games without Dawson Knox.
• The Patriots have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AFC East opponents.
• The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games against the Bills.
• The Patriots have won the first half in each of their last eight games against AFC East opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Patriots’ last seven games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Bills’ last six home games without Dawson Knox have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last five games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in four of the Bills’ last five games.
• Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in five of the Bills’ last six October games against AFC East opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in seven of the Bills’ last eight October games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• James Cook has recorded 107+ rushing yards in four of the Bills’ last five games as favorites following a win.
• Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last five home games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• James Cook has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last six games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• Dawson Knox has recorded 10+ receiving yards in 12 of his 13 previous October appearances with the Bills as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Gregory Rousseau ranks 1st in the NFL in sacks (6.0) this season.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Rhamondre Stevenson has scored two or more touchdowns in three of his last four appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Patriots’ last three October games against AFC East opponents.
• Romeo Doubs has recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of his last six October appearances.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 60+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his eight previous appearances against the Bills.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 34+ rushing yards in 10 of his last 11 appearances following a road loss.
• Heading into Week 4, Romeo Doubs ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (24.2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bills – two different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Bills – two different players have recorded 100+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Patriots – six different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Patriots rank 32nd in the NFL in red zone percentage (16.7%) this season.

Bills vs Patriots Prediction 

Buffalo comes into this matchup with an undefeated record to start the season, but they did turn the ball over five times last week. The Bills have had some defensive issues in the first few weeks, but their offense has been elite. New England is coming off of a bad loss to the Jaguars and Maye has looked awful under center. I think the Patriots offense will get going here, but I don’t trust Maye on the road to keep pace with the Bills. Take Buffalo to cover at home.