Buccaneers vs Dolphins Prediction 12/28/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Buccaneers vs Dolphins Prediction for this NFL Week 17 game on Sunday, December 28^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Miami Dolphins Preview

The Miami Dolphins have a 6-9 record this season and are sitting third in the AFC East. They are 7-8 ATS, 8-5-2 in Over/Under and have a 4-4 home record and a 2-5 away record. The Dolphins are coming off a 21-45 home loss against the Cincinnati Bengals and will face the Patriots next.

Offensively, the Dolphins average 21.1 points per game, ranking 22nd in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 24.6 points per game, which is 22nd. Miami averages 309.0 total yards per game (186.5 passing and 122.4 rushing), while allowing 339.5 total yards per game (130.3 rushing and 209.1 passing).

Tua Tagovailoa leads the Dolphins with 2660 passing yards with 67.7% completed passes and 20 touchdowns. De’Von Achane leads the team in rushing yards with 1267, while Jaylen Waddle has a team-high 64 receptions for 910 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. Defensively, Jordyn Brooks has a team-high 169 total tackles (93 of them solo), while Bradley Chubb leads the team in sacks, with 6.5, while Rasul Douglas has a team-high 2 interceptions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 7-8 record this season and are sitting second in the NFC South. They are 5-10 ATS, 8-7 in Over/Under and have a 4-3 home record and a 3-5 away record. The Buccaneers are coming off a 20-23 away loss against the Carolina Panthers and will face the Panthers next.

Offensively, the Buccaneers average 23.1 points per game, ranking 18th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 25.1 points per game, which is 24th. Tampa Bay averages 315.3 total yards per game (198.3 passing and 116.9 rushing), while allowing 343.3 total yards per game (101.3 rushing and 242 passing).

Baker Mayfield leads the Buccaneers with 3144 passing yards with 61.6% completed passes and 23 touchdowns. Rachaad White leads the team in rushing yards with 539, while Emeka Egbuka has a team-high 59 receptions for 910 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. Defensively, SirVocea Dennis has a team-high 92 total tackles (60 of them solo), while YaYa Diaby leads the team in sacks, with 6, while Jamel Dean has a team-high 3 interceptions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins Betting Trends: Week 17

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Buccaneers have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won each of the Buccaneers’ last three games.
• The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Buccaneers’ last four games.
• The Dolphins have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as underdogs against NFC South opponents.
• The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last six games against NFC South opponents.
• The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games against NFC South opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win

• The Buccaneers have won each of their last seven road games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Dolphins have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs without Tua Tagovailoa.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine home games before a Division game.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games following a Division game.
• The Buccaneers have won the first quarter in four of their last five December games against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have lost the first half in eight of their last nine December games as underdogs.
• The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games as favorites following a road loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Buccaneers’ last six games without Antoine Winfield Jr. have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Dolphins’ last six home games following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of the last 10 Sunday games at Hard Rock Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Jaylen Waddle has recorded 72+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six appearances with the Dolphins as home underdogs.
• De’Von Achane has scored the first touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last three games against NFC South opponents.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 280+ passing yards in four of the Dolphins’ last five December games against NFC opponents.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 92+ rushing yards in four of the Dolphins’ last five Sunday games.
• De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last 15 Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• Darren Waller has recorded 40+ receiving yards in each of his last eight December home appearances.
• Heading into Week 17, De’Von Achane ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (5.8) this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

• Mike Evans has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Chris Godwin has recorded 38+ receiving yards in 17 of his 18 previous appearances with the Buccaneers as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Chris Godwin has recorded 38+ rushing and receiving yards in 17 of his 18 previous appearances with the Buccaneers as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 233+ passing yards in each of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC East opponents.
• Rachaad White has recorded 35+ rushing yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last seven road games.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 22+ completions in eight of his last nine December appearances against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 17, Chase McLaughlin ranks 1st in the NFL in 50+ yard field goals made (11) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Dolphins – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 17.
• Dolphins – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 17.
• Heading into Week 17, 11 different Buccaneers players have recorded a receiving touchdown this season – equal-most in the league.
• Heading into Week 17, the Buccaneers rank 31st in the NFL in red zone percentage against (71.1%) this season.

Buccaneers vs Dolphins Prediction

In this Buccaneers vs Dolphins Prediction, the Buccaneers are coming as -5.5-point road favorites. Tampa has just one win more than Miami and both teams have identical home/away splits and both have been struggling lately, with Miami coming off back-to-back losses and Tampa is 1-6 in its last 7 games. Tampa has lost and failed to cover its last three games on the road and also has a slightly weaker defense than Miami, which makes the hosts a nice play as home dogs in this spot. Take Miami and get the +5.5 points in this one.