Chargers vs Chiefs Prediction 9/5/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Chargers vs Chiefs prediction for this NFL game on Friday, September 5th at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 1 matchup.

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 last season and they finished second in the AFC West standings, four games behind the Chiefs for first. Los Angeles was just 3-3 through six games, but they won five of the next six and finished the year strong. The Chargers picked up wins against the Raiders (2), Panthers, Broncos (2), Saints, Browns, Titans, Bengals, Falcons, and Patriots, while they lost to the Steelers, Chiefs (2), Cardinals, Ravens, and Buccaneers. Los Angeles did make the postseason as a wild card, but they were blown out by a score of 32-12 to end their season. The Chargers scored 23.6 points per game last year, which ranked 11th in the NFL, while they allowed 17.7 points against per game, which ranked first in the league. 

In the preseason, Los Angeles went 2-2 with wins over Detroit and New Orleans in their first two games by scores of 34-7 and 27-13, while losing their last two games against the Rams and 49ers by scores of 23-22 and 30-23. The Chargers will have Herbert under center once again this year, but Omarion Hampton is a new face that will lead the backfield. At receiver, the Chargers have McConkey and Johnston back, but also added Keenan Allen in the offseason. 

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs were 15-2 last year and they finished first in the AFC West standings. Kansas City started the season by winning their first nine games, which allowed them to take it easy the rest of the way and still win the division. The Chiefs picked up wins against the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, Chargers (2), Saints, 49ers, Raiders (2), Buccaneers, Broncos, Panthers, Browns, Texans, and Steelers, while they lost to the Bills and Broncos. Kansas City made the playoffs after winning the division and getting the bye, before beating the Texans and Bills by scores of 23-14 and 32-29. The Chiefs did make the Super Bowl, but lost to the Eagles by a score of 40-22. Kansas City scored 22.6 points per game last year, which was 15th in the NFL, while they allowed 19.2 points against per game, which was fourth. 

During the preseason, Kansas City lost all three games against the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Bears by scores of 20-17, 33-16, and 29-27. Kansas City has Mahomes back as the quarterback, which means they could win any game on their schedule. The Chiefs will have Worthy, Brown, Smith-Schuster, and Kelce as weapons for Mahomes, with Pacheco starting as the lead back. 

Why the Chargers will beat the Chiefs

• The Chargers have won five of their last six season openers.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chargers have covered the spread in each of their last four games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chargers have won the first half in each of their last seven September games as underdogs.
• The Chargers have won the first quarter in each of their last four September games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last eight season openers against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Chargers’ last seven September games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.

Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Facts

• Tyler Conklin has scored a touchdown in each of his last two appearances.
• Justin Herbert has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Chargers’ last three regular season games.
• Justin Herbert has recorded 242+ passing yards in each of the Chargers’ last four games.
• Keenan Allen has recorded 55+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances with the Chargers as underdogs.
• Ladd McConkey has recorded 83+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six appearances against AFC opponents.
• Tarheeb Still recorded the equal-most interceptions in a single game last season (2 vs Falcons, Week 13).

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Kareem Hunt has scored a touchdown in each of his last four appearances against AFC opponents.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ completions in eight of the Chiefs’ last 10 regular season games as favorites.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 260+ passing yards in eight of the Chiefs’ last 10 regular season games as favorites.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 44+ rushing yards in 10 of his 11 previous September appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 14+ receiving yards in each of his last six September appearances.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 53+ rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 September appearances.
• Travis Kelce recorded the equal-most receptions in a single game last season (14 vs Buccaneers, Week 9).

Matchup/League Facts

• Chargers – 11 different players recorded one interception or more in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• The Chargers ranked 1st in the NFL in points allowed per game (17.7) last season.
• Chiefs – eight different players recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• Chiefs – five different players recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.

David Racey was 18-10 (64%) in the NFL Preseason this year. Click here for his premium plays for this week!

Chargers vs Chiefs Prediction 

The second game on the NFL calendar this year is an AFC West showdown between the first and second place teams from 2024. Kansas City is never easy to deal with because of Mahomes, but the Chargers were very difficult to beat as well. The Chargers always struggle to play the Chiefs, but I like them with the points here. Los Angeles is mostly healthy and I think their offense is going to play very well, especially with the addition of Allen at receiver. I do expect plenty of points, just like last year’s game in Brazil, but I am fading the Chiefs and their aging roster here.