Bears vs Cowboys Prediction 9/21/25 NFL Picks Today

The Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears meet Sunday in NFL action from Soldier Field. Here’s a Bears vs Cowboys prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Bears vs Cowboys pick.

Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview

This year the Cowboys’ opener pitted them against their rival (and Super Bowl champion) Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas kept pace for the first half but couldn’t score after the break in a tough road loss 24-20. Quarterback Dak Prescott went 21-of-34 for 188 yards in the defeat, and Javonte Williams led the rush on 15 carries for 54 yards and two scores. CeeDee Lamb was the top receiver with seven catches for 110 yards.

In another divisional rivalry matchup with the New York Giants on Sunday, the Cowboys played a wild game. Dallas went into the break with a 13-10 deficit, then after a 21-20 fourth quarter we had overtime. The Cowboys would end up kicking the game-winning field goal for a hard-fought 40-37 victory. Prescott was 38-of-52 for 361 yards, two scores and an interception. Williams again led the rush, this time on 18 carries for 97 yards and a score. Lamb was again on top of the receivers with his nine grabs for 112 yards. Jake Ferguson also had nine catches, totaling 78 yards in the tight victory.

Chicago Bears Betting Preview

Over on the Bears’ side, they played their division-mate Minnesota Vikings in the opener this year. Chicago was up 17-6 going into the fourth quarter, then got outscored 21-7 the rest of the way for a rough loss 27-24. Caleb Williams managed a 21-of-35 line for 210 yards and a touchdown while also leading the rush with six totes for 58 yards and another score. DJ Moore was the leading team receiver in the loss, totaling 68 yards on three grabs.

Matched up against the Detroit Lions in game two, the Bears were in for a long day. Chicago coughed up double-digit points in each of the four quarters (including 28 in the first half) on the way to a rough loss 52-21. Williams was 19-of-30 for 207 yards, two touchdowns and an interception this time, and D’Andre Swift carried 12 times for 63 yards and a score. Rome Odunze had a nice day though, catching seven balls for 128 yards and two touchdowns. Moore would add five catches for 46 yards as well.

Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Chicago Bears will win

• The home team has won each of the Bears’ last four Week 3 games.
• The Cowboys have lost seven of their last eight September games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
• The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last four games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Bears have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four home games against NFC East opponents.
• The Bears have won the first half in each of their last four games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in three of their last four Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.

Why the Dallas Cowboys will win

• The Cowboys have won each of their last nine games against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
• The Bears have lost each of their last seven games following a Division game.
• The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last five September games as road underdogs.
• The Bears have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games following a road loss.
• The Bears have lost the first half in seven of their last eight games following a loss.
• The Bears have lost the first quarter in each of their last six games following a road loss.
• The Cowboys have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games against the Bears.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Cowboys’ last six road games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Bears’ last five Sunday games have gone OVER the total points line.

Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts

• D.J. Moore has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances against NFC East opponents.
• Caleb Williams has recorded 231+ passing yards in four of the Bears’ last five Sunday games at Soldier Field.
• Caleb Williams has recorded 33+ rushing yards in each of the Bears’ last six home games against NFC opponents.
• D.J. Moore has recorded 62+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bears’ last six home games against NFC opponents.
• D.J. Moore has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of the Bears’ last six home games against NFC opponents.
• D’Andre Swift has scored a touchdown in six of his seven previous September home appearances against NFC opponents.
• Caleb Williams has recorded 21+ completions in four of the Bears’ last five home games.
• Heading into Week 3, Rome Odunze ranks T1st in the NFL in touchdowns (3) this season.

Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Facts

• CeeDee Lamb has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances following a home win.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 265+ passing yards in each of his last four road appearances against NFC North opponents.
• Miles Sanders has recorded 17+ rushing yards in each of his 12 previous September appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Miles Sanders has recorded 27+ rushing and receiving yards in 37 of his 39 previous Sunday road appearances.
• Jalen Tolbert has recorded 12+ receiving yards in 13 of the Cowboys’ last 14 Sunday games.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 24+ completions in five of his last six appearances following a home win.
• Heading into Week 3, Javonte Williams ranks T1st in the NFL in touchdowns (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bears – two different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Heading into Week 3, the Bears rank 32nd in the NFL in points allowed per game (39.5) this season.
• Cowboys – two different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Cowboys – one different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.

Bears vs Cowboys Prediction

I’ll take a stab on the Bears in this one, but I’ll likely stay away in reality. You could probably call this game either way. With one coming off a blowout loss to a good team, and the other coming off an overtime win versus a bad team, it’s anyone’s guess how this one will go. In any case, Chicago’s defense got demolished by the Lions to the tune of 511 yards (334 passing), 8.8 yards per play and 25 first downs. The Bears coughed up a couple of turnovers themselves and had eight penalties along the way. Through two games so far, Chicago hasn’t scored terribly—21 or more in both games and a combined 45 together. On defense the Bears have given up 79 combined across that same pair, however. Dallas might be able to put up a sizable total here.

Speaking of the Cowboys, they committed 12 penalties in a sloppy overall game (26 total flags) versus the Giants, and also gave up a whopping 506 yards (422 passing) on defense. All things considered the third-down stands (6-of-14) weren’t too bad though, and Dallas did get an interception. Offensively the Cowboys posted 478 yards (343 passing), 5.8 yards per play and 32 first downs. This should be another good opportunity to flex their muscles on offense, but the Bears should be able to put up a few points themselves.