Bears vs Lions Prediction 1/4/26 NFL Picks Today

The Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears meet in week 18 NFL action from Soldier Field on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Bears vs Lions Prediction.

Detroit Lions Recap

The Detroit Lions come into this game looking to rebound from a 23-10 loss at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings last time out to sit at 8-8 this season.

Lions Trying To Finish Above .500 Amidst Disappointing Season

Jared Goff has thrown for 4,233 yards, 33 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 68.3% passing while Jahmyr Gibbs has a team-high 1,143 rushing yards and 13 TDs while David Montgomery has 674 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Amon-Ra St. Brown leads Detroit in receiving with 106 grabs for 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns while Jameson Williams has 1,043 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns and Sam LaPorta has 489 receiving yards with 3 TDs on 40 catches and Gibbs has 74 catches for 583 yards and 4 TDs. On defense, Jack Campbell has a team-high 165 total tackles along with 5 sacks while Derrick Barnes has 4 sacks and Aidan Hutchinson has a team-high 13.5 sacks to lead the Lions in sacks. Al-Quadin Muhammad has 11 sacks and Kerby Joseph has a team-high 3 interceptions. As a unit, Detroit’s defense has combined for 47 sacks and 12 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Detroit Lions will win

• The Bears have lost 14 of their last 15 games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Lions have won each of their last six road games without Aidan Hutchinson.
• The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last six January games against NFC North opponents.
• The Bears have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight January games against NFC North opponents.

Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts

• Jared Goff has recorded 279+ passing yards in each of the Lions’ last four games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Jared Goff has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Lions’ last seven January games.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Lions’ last eight games following a road loss.
• David Montgomery has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 road appearances against NFC North opponents.
• David Montgomery has recorded 57+ rushing yards in each of his four previous appearances against the Bears.
• Kalif Raymond has recorded 16+ rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Lions as underdogs following a loss.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has scored the last touchdown in each of the Lions’ last three games following a road loss.
• Heading into Week 18, Jared Goff is the only player to have recorded 4000+ passing yards in each of the last three seasons. (including 2025).

Chicago Bears Recap

The Chicago Bears come into this game looking to bounce back after a 42-38 loss at the hands of San Francisco last time out to sit at 11-5 on the year.

Bears Looking To Hold Down 2-Seed In NFC

Caleb Williams has thrown for 3,730 yards, 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 57.9% passing while D’Andre Swift has rushed for 1,047 yards and 9 touchdowns and Kyle Monangai has 769 rushing yards and 5 TDs. DJ Moore has a team-high 49 catches for 671 yards and 6 TDs and Rome Odunze has 44 catches for 661 yards and 6 TDs as well and Colston Loveland has 622 receiving yards and 5 TDs. Luther Burden III has 44 catches for 617 yards and two more Bears have 300+ receiving yards respectively this season. On defense, Tremaine Edmunds leads the Bears with 104 total tackles including 54 solo tackles and 4 interceptions while Kevin Byard III has a team-high 6 interceptions. Montez Sweat also has a team-high 9.5 sacks as well. As a unit, Chicago’s defense has combined for 32 sacks and 22 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Chicago Bears will win

• The Lions have lost each of their last nine games at Soldier Field following a road loss.
• The Bears have won each of their last six home games.
• The Lions have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Bears have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as favorites against NFC opponents.

Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts

• D.J. Moore has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bears’ last five games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• Caleb Williams has recorded 21+ completions in four of the Bears’ last five home games against NFC North opponents.
• Caleb Williams has recorded 242+ passing yards in each of the Bears’ last four games following a road loss.
• D’Andre Swift has scored the last touchdown in each of his three previous January home appearances.
• D’Andre Swift has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his 12 previous home appearances in games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• D’Andre Swift has recorded 58+ rushing yards in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a home favorite against NFC opponents.
• D’Andre Swift has recorded 70+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bears’ last nine games against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 18, Kevin Byard ranks 1st in the NFL in interceptions (6) this season.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Lions’ last six games without Kalif Raymond have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Bears’ last four home games against NFC opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Bears vs Lions Prediction

I’m on the Bears here. You don’t normally get a team like Chicago that’s won the division and can’t get the 1-seed playing motivated in the final game of the season. But Chicago can secure home field up to at least the NFC title game with a win. With a potential game against the rival Packers where the home team won both meetings in the regular season, I think getting home field is important here. I wonder where Detroit’s heads are at after what they probably consider a massive disappointment compared to where they were last year and what was expected coming into this season. Also, we have to deal with Jared Goff outdoors, which has never been a fun time. Give me Chicago at home here.