Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction 9/14/26 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Chiefs vs Broncos prediction for this NFL game on Monday, September 14th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 1 matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 last season and they finished third in the AFC West standings, eight games behind the Broncos for first. Kansas City started the season with a 27-21 loss to the Chargers and lost their second game by a score of 20-17 against the Eagles. The Chiefs were 5-3 through eight games, but they lost eight of their last nine games, as Mahomes went down with an injury. Kansas City really struggled to score down the stretch, as they scored 13 points or fewer in five straight games to end the year. KC scored 21.3 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 19.3 points against per game on defense. 

In the preseason, Kansas City was 0-2-1, which was last in the AFC West. The Chiefs lost to the Rams by a score of 20-12, lost to the Buccaneers by a score of 16-15, and tied the Seahawks by a score of 16-16 in their three games. KC will have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback with Kenneth Walker III at running back and Rashee Rice at receiver. 

Denver Broncos Betting Preview

The Denver Broncos were 14-3 last year and they finished first in the AFC West standings, three games ahead of the Chargers in second. Denver started the season with a 1-2 record, but they won 11 games in a row, before going 2-1 in their last three. The Broncos only lost to the Colts, Chargers, and Jaguars in the regular season, but they scored 20 points or fewer in five of their last nine games. Denver defeated the Bills in overtime by a score of 33-30 in the playoffs, but lost to the Patriots 10-7. The Broncos scored 23.6 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 18.3 points against per game on defense. 

In the preseason, Denver was 2-1, which was first in the AFC West. The Broncos defeated the Falcons by a score of 27-7, lost to the Packers by a score of 33-13, and defeated the Vikings by a score of 34-6 in their three games. Denver will have Bo Nix at quarterback with JK Dobbins at running back and Courtland Sutton at receiver. 

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The favorites have won each of the Broncos’ last 10 games at Arrowhead Stadium.
• The Broncos have lost each of their last six road openers against AFC opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in eight of the Broncos’ last nine games.
• The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games without Nik Bonitto.
• The Broncos have lost the first quarter in each of their last four September games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 10 home games against AFC West opponents.
• The Broncos have lost the first half in each of their last five games as road underdogs.

Why the Denver Broncos will win

• The Chiefs have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Broncos have won each of their last four games as underdogs without Jarrett Stidham.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Chiefs’ last nine games.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in each of their last five September games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in five of their last six home openers as favorites.
• The Broncos have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last nine home games against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last seven games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.
• Eight of the Broncos’ last nine Monday games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Travis Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five Week 1 appearances.
• Kenneth Walker III has recorded 62+ rushing yards in each of his last four appearances.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last eight games as home favorites against AFC West opponents.
• Kenneth Walker III has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances.
• Justin Fields has recorded 217+ passing yards in four of his five previous Monday appearances.
• Justin Fields has recorded 17+ completions in four of his five previous Monday appearances.
• Justin Fields ranked 1st in the league for TD:INT ratio (7.00) last season.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

• RJ Harvey has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Broncos’ last four road games.
• RJ Harvey has recorded 20+ rushing yards in each of the Broncos’ last nine games.
• Pat Bryant has recorded 31+ receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances with Bo Nix as the starting quarterback.
• J.K. Dobbins has recorded 62+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances against division opponents.
• Jarrett Stidham has recorded 219+ passing yards in four of his five previous appearances as a starter.
• Jarrett Stidham has recorded two or more completions in each of his six previous appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC opponents.
• Bo Nix ranked 1st amongst qualified players for sack percentage (3.5%) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Chiefs ranked 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (75.0%) last season.
• The Chiefs ranked 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (26.1%) last season.
• Broncos – 16 different players recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game last season – most in the NFL.
• The Broncos ranked 1st in the NFL in sacks (68.0) last season.

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction 

Denver comes into this season after a great 2025, but Nix got injured during their playoff run. The Broncos should be very solid once again, but I would like to see a little more from the offense. Kansas City is hoping to have Mahomes at QB for this game, as he is also returning from an injury. The Chiefs fell apart after his injury last year, but if he is playing, he is always dangerous. I am assuming Mahomes will play in this game, but another year on the aging Chiefs roster doesn’t get me excited. Take Denver on the road.