Chiefs vs Colts Prediction 11/23/25 NFL Picks Today

The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs meet Sunday in NFL action at GEHA Field. Here’s a Chiefs vs Colts Prediction. This article will include a Chiefs vs Colts Pick.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The Indianapolis Colts lost to the Steelers, beat the Falcons, and they play the Texans next. The Indianapolis Colts have won 5 of their last 6 games. Daniel Jones is completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 2,659 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Tyler Warren and Alex Pierce have combined for 1,202 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Micheal Pittman Jr. has 54 receptions.

The Indianapolis Colts ground game is averaging 145.3 yards per contest, and Jonathan Taylor leads the way with 1,139 yards and 15 touchdowns. Defensively, Indianapolis is allowing 20.6 points and 327.6 yards per game. Nick Cross leads the Indianapolis Colts with 69 tackles, Laiatu Latu has 5 sacks and Mekhi Blackmon has 2 interceptions.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Bills and Broncos, and they play the Cowboys next. The Kansas City Chiefs have split their last 10 games. Patrick Mahomes is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 2,625 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce have combined for 1,060 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, while Tyquan Thornton has 15 receptions.

The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 115.3 yards per contest, and Kareem Hunt leads the way with 353 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 18.1 points and 296.8 yards per game. Nick Bolton leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 81 tackles, George Karlaftis has 5 sacks and Chris Roland-Wallace has 1 interception.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 12 home games against AFC opponents.
• The Colts have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the Chiefs’ last seven games.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Chiefs have won the first quarter in five of their last six home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last eight games as home favorites.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last seven home games against AFC opponents.

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Colts have won each of their last six road games against AFC West opponents on a losing streak.
• The Chiefs have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games in November.
• The road team has covered the spread in eight of the Colts’ last nine Week 12 games.
• The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last nine games as road underdogs.
• The road team has won the first half in six of the last seven games between the Colts and Chiefs.
• The Colts have won the first quarter in each of their last seven road games against AFC opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last seven games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Colts’ last four games as underdogs against the Chiefs have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of the last four Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last six regular season games against AFC South opponents.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 305+ passing yards in five of the Chiefs’ last six regular season games against AFC South opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Marquise Brown has recorded 35+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 12 appearances in games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 15 November games as favorites.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ rushing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last eight regular season games against AFC South opponents.
• Heading into Week 12, Kareem Hunt ranks 1st in the league amongst qualified players for broken tackle percentage (86.0%) this season.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan Taylor has scored the first touchdown in three of the Colts’ last four games.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored two or more touchdowns in six of the Colts’ last eight games against teams on a losing streak.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 255+ passing yards in each of the Colts’ last four games.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Colts’ last nine games against teams on a losing streak.
• Josh Downs has recorded 48+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances with the Colts as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 94+ rushing yards in each of his four previous road appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his four previous road appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Heading into Week 12, Jonathan Taylor ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (1139) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 12, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (23.5%) this season.
• Heading into Week 12, the Chiefs have recorded the equal-most wins by a margin of 10+ points this season (5).
• Colts – four different players have recorded 2.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 12.
• Heading into Week 12, the Colts rank 1st in the NFL in points per game (32.1) this season.

Chiefs vs Colts Prediction

A lot of people are going to be on the Colts and the points, as they’ve been a solid team all year and have had an extra week to prepare. The Chiefs are also experiencing a down year by their standards and are coming off two shaky losses. I get it, and I usually love my dogs that have the rest advantage. However, we’re getting the Chiefs at home as a reasonable favorite. You don’t get these chances often.

The Chiefs have won and covered four straight home games when favorites of 4 or fewer points. They’ve won those games by an average of 7.75 points. The Chiefs have covered 9 of their 14 home games when favorites of 4 or fewer points. I’ll side with the Chiefs and the reasonable number.