Chiefs vs Commanders Prediction 10/27/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Chiefs vs Commanders prediction for this NFL game on Monday, October 27th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 8 matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-3 this year after they defeated Las Vegas by a score of 31-0 in their last game. Kansas City led 21-0 at halftime and they were able to cruise to the easy shutout victory in the second half. The Chiefs out gained LV by a total of 434-95, went 9-15 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Patrick Mahomes went 26-35 for 286 yards and three touchdowns, while Isiah Pacheco rushed 15 times for 57 yards and one score. Travis Kelce led the receivers with three catches for 54 yards in the win. The KC defense recorded one sack and one tackle for loss in the game. 

Prior to that win, Kansas City defeated Detroit by a score of 30-17, but did lose to Jacksonville by a score of 31-28 before that. The Chiefs have won four of their last five games and they are currently tied for second in the AFC West standings. Kansas City has scored 26.6 points per game with 247.1 passing yards and 123.4 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 17.7 points against per game this season. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 1,800 yards, 14 touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Travis Kelce has 31 receptions for 375 yards and two scores this year. 

Washington Commanders Betting Preview

The Washington Commanders are 3-4 this season after they lost to Dallas by a score of 44-22 in their last game. Washington led 8-7 in the first quarter, but they allowed 34 of the next 41 points, which led to the blowout loss. The Commanders were out gained by a total of 409-341, went 7-16 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 2-0 in the game. Jayden Daniels went 12-22 for 156 yards and one touchdown, while also rushing for 35 yards and one score on eight carries. Jaylin Lane led the receivers with three catches for 60 yards in the loss. The Washington defense recorded one sack and three tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Washington lost to Chicago by a score of 25-24, but did beat the Chargers by a score of 27-10 before that. The Commanders have lost three of their last four games and they are currently third in the NFC East standings. Washington has scored 25.7 points per game with 196.1 passing yards and 148.9 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.3 points against per game this season. Jayden Daniels is hurt, so we should see Marcus Mariota at quarterback for this game. Deebo Samuel (questionable) has 34 receptions for 315 yards and three scores this season. 

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 home games against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
• The Commanders have lost each of their last six road games against AFC West opponents on a winning streak.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last eight October games against NFC opponents.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a Division loss.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games as home favorites.
• The Commanders have lost the first quarter in each of their last eight road games.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last 11 games as home favorites against NFC opponents.

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Commanders have won each of their last four Monday games as underdogs.
• The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games against NFC East opponents.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in eight of their last nine road games against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games following a Division game.
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last five Monday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The road team has won the first half in five of the last six games between the Commanders and Chiefs.
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games following a road loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last six home games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of the Commanders’ last nine games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Three of the last four Monday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Marquise Brown has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six October home appearances.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 24+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last seven Monday games.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 286+ passing yards in six of the Chiefs’ last seven October home games.
• Marquise Brown has recorded 25+ receiving yards in each of his 10 previous regular season appearances against NFC East opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 10 previous regular season appearances with the Chiefs as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 33+ rushing yards in each of his nine previous Monday appearances.
• Heading into Week 8, Tyquan Thornton ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (22.2) this season.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Deebo Samuel has scored a touchdown in each of his last four road appearances.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 13+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances following a loss.
• Deebo Samuel has scored the last touchdown in each of his last three road appearances.
• Terry McLaurin has recorded 53+ receiving yards in each of his last seven October appearances.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 71+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last three October appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Jayden Daniels has recorded 21+ completions in nine of his last 11 appearances with the Commanders as underdogs.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt has four rushing touchdowns through his first five career games – most by any player since De’Von Achane, (2024).

Matchup/League Facts

• Chiefs – only team with 3+ players to record 200+ rushing yards this season (Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco), heading into Week 8.
• Heading into Week 8, the Chiefs have scored three or more touchdowns in four consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the league.
• Commanders – four different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.
• Commanders – three different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 8.

Chiefs vs Commanders Prediction 

Washington comes into this matchup after losing three of their last four games, they are on the road in a tough place to play, and they will be without their starting quarterback. The Commanders have allowed 44, 25, 10, and 34 points in their last four games, and will play a KC offense that has scored 30+ in three of their last four. The Chiefs are getting healthier on offense and they are starting to roll over opponents. I think KC will continue to put up plenty of points in this game, but I also expect Washington to hit 17-20, as they have in four of their last five. Take the over here. 

David Racey is 43-26 (63%) in the NFL this season and he is currently #1 on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!