Chiefs vs Ravens Prediction 9/28/25 NFL Picks Today

The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs meet Sunday in NFL action at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Here’s a Chiefs vs Ravens Prediction. This article will include a Chiefs vs Ravens Pick.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview

The Baltimore Ravens lost to the Lions, beat the Browns, and they play the Texans next. The Baltimore Ravens have won 5 of their last 7 regular season games. Lamar Jackson is completing 72 percent of his passes for 722 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Zay Flowers and DeAndre Hopkins have combined for 343 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Mark Andrews has 8 receptions.

The Baltimore Ravens ground game is averaging 122.7 yards per contest, and Derrick Henry leads the way with 242 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Baltimore is allowing 32 points and 415 yards per game. Roquan Smith leads the Baltimore Ravens with 32 tackles, Nnamdi Madubuike has 2 sacks and Nate Wiggins has 1 interception.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Giants, lost to the Eagles, and they play the Jaguars next. The Kansas City Chiefs have lost 3 of their last 4 regular season games. Patrick Mahomes is completing 59 percent of his passes for 669 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Hollywood Brown and Tyquan Thornton have combined for 342 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Travis Kelce has 10 receptions.

The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 108 yards per contest, and Patrick Mahomes leads the way with 125 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 18.7 points and 297 yards per game. Nick Bolton leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 28 tackles, George Karlaftis has 2 sacks and Chris Roland-Wallace has 1 interception.

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 15 home games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Ravens have lost each of their last six September road games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last eight September games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Ravens have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six September games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chiefs have won the first quarter in five of their last six September games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their nine previous games against the Ravens following a win.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five home games against AFC opponents.

Why the Baltimore Ravens will win

• The favorites have won each of the Chiefs’ last 13 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
• The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games.
• The Ravens have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites following a home loss.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five Sunday home games.
• The Ravens have scored the first touchdown in each of their last nine games as favorites following a home loss.
• The Ravens have won the first quarter in each of their last eight games as road favorites following a home loss.
• The Ravens have won the first half in each of their last eight September games as road favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Ravens’ last eight games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Chiefs’ last five Week 4 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Twelve of the last 16 Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Kareem Hunt has recorded 44+ rushing and receiving yards in 13 of his 14 previous appearances following a road win.
• Xavier Worthy has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Chiefs’ last six games following a win.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 241+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last six games against the Ravens.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 49+ receiving yards in 14 of his last 16 September home appearances.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 31+ rushing yards in each of his 10 previous appearances with the Chiefs as underdogs.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ completions in each of his last five appearances following a road win.
• Heading into Week 4, Patrick Mahomes ranks 1st in the league for batted pass attempts (7) this season.

Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Facts

• Derrick Henry has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of his 13 appearances with his team as a road favorite against teams with a losing record.
• Lamar Jackson has recorded 235+ passing yards in each of the Ravens’ last four September games against AFC West opponents.
• DeAndre Hopkins has recorded 22+ receiving yards in each of his last 22 appearances against AFC West opponents.
• DeAndre Hopkins has scored the last touchdown in three of his last four regular season appearances against the Chiefs.
• Lamar Jackson has recorded 54+ rushing yards in eight of the Ravens’ last nine September road games.
• Derrick Henry has recorded 108+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last five Week 4 appearances.
• Derrick Henry has scored two touchdowns in each of his last three September appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Lamar Jackson has recorded 19+ completions in each of the Ravens’ last three September road games against AFC West opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Lamar Jackson ranks 1st in the NFL in passing touchdowns (9) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Chiefs rank T2nd in the NFL in Q4 win percentage (66.7) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Chiefs rank 30th in the NFL in Q1 points per game (1.0) this season.
• Ravens – three different players have recorded multi-touchdown games this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Ravens – nine different players have recorded at least one touchdown this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.

Chiefs vs Ravens Prediction

Despite two losses, the Ravens look like the more complete team up to this point. The Chiefs continue to have major offensive issues and everything seems to be a struggle. With that said, the Ravens have nothing defensively through two games and are 32nd in total defense and 31st in scoring defense. The Ravens also have less time to prepare for this game and are going into a tough environment.

Since 2019, the Chiefs have outright won 11 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Even with the struggles, it’s hard to turn down free points with Mahomes, especially at home. Give me the Chiefs.