Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction 12/25/25 NFL Picks Today

The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders meet Thursday in NFL action at Northwest Stadium. Here’s a Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction. This article will include a Commanders vs Cowboys Pick.

Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Chargers and Vikings, and they play the Giants next. The Dallas Cowboys have lost 3 straight games. Dak Prescott is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 4,175 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb have combined for 2,369 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, while Jake Ferguson has 80 receptions.

The Dallas Cowboys ground game is averaging 118.8 yards per contest, and Javonte Williams leads the way with 1,147 yards and 10 touchdowns. Defensively, Dallas is allowing 30.3 points and 380.1 yards per game. Kenneth Murray Jr. leads the Dallas Cowboys with 77 tackles, James Houston has 5.5 sacks and Donovan Wilson has 2 interceptions.

Washington Commanders Betting Preview

The Washington Commanders lost to the Eagles, beat the Giants, and they play the Eagles next. The Washington Commanders have lost 9 of their last 10 games. Marcus Mariota is completing 61.2 percent of his passes for 1,695 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz have combined for 1,143 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, while Terry McLaurin has 29 receptions.

The Washington Commanders ground game is averaging 133.9 yards per contest, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the way with 671 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, Washington is allowing 26.9 points and 383.1 yards per game. Bobby Wagner leads the Washington Commanders with 147 tackles, Von Miller has 7 sacks and Mike Sainristil has 4 interceptions.

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Cowboys’ last five games.
• The Cowboys have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Week 17 games.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in four of the Cowboys’ last five games.
• The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• The Cowboys have lost the first half in four of their last five road games against NFC opponents.
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five Week 17 games.

Why the Dallas Cowboys will win

• The Cowboys have won each of their last nine games as favorites against NFC East opponents.
• The Commanders have lost each of their last eight games as home underdogs before a Division game.
• The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last six road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games without Terry McLaurin.
• The Commanders have lost the first quarter in each of their last eight games as home underdogs.
• The Cowboys have won the first half in each of their last nine games as road favorites following a loss.
• The Cowboys have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games played as favorites on the East Coast.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Cowboys’ last seven road games without Trevon Diggs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Commanders’ last six games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the last seven games between NFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Chris Rodriguez has scored a touchdown in each of the Commanders’ last four home games.
• Terry McLaurin has recorded 53+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances with the Commanders as home underdogs against NFC opponents.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 11+ rushing yards in each of his four previous appearances against the Cowboys.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 56+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his four previous appearances against the Cowboys.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt has four rushing touchdowns through his first five career games – most by any player since De’Von Achane, (2024).

Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Facts

• George Pickens has scored a touchdown in each of his last five road appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 24+ completions in each of his last four December appearances against NFC East opponents.
• CeeDee Lamb has recorded 89+ receiving yards in each of the Cowboys’ last six Thursday road games.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 294+ passing yards in five of his last six December appearances against NFC opponents.
• CeeDee Lamb has recorded 100+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Cowboys’ last six Thursday road games.
• Heading into Week 17, CeeDee Lamb is the only player to have recorded 1000+ receiving yards in each of the last five seasons. (including 2025).

Matchup/League Facts

• Commanders – five different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 17.
• Commanders – four different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 17.
• Heading into Week 17, the Cowboys rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game (274.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 17, the Cowboys rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (257.8) this season.

Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction

I’m not sure why oddsmakers and bettors love the Cowboys, but newsflash, this isn’t a good team. The Cowboys aren’t in the playoff race and have a defense that couldn’t defend my dead grandmother. This will be the third straight week the Cowboys are favored. They’ve lost the previous two games. The Cowboys were favored last week against a title contender in the Chargers, which made absolutely zero sense.

Since week 3, the Cowboys are 2-5 SU and ATS as a favorite. Make it make sense, folks. Now, the Commanders aren’t a team worth writing home about in their own right, but who cares. We’re getting a free touchdown with them. I’m not laying a touchdown with the Cowboys, who don’t play defense and have no motivation to even play hard. Give me the points with the Commanders.