Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction 11/16/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction for this NFL Week 11 game on Sunday, November 16^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Miami Dolphins Preview

The Miami Dolphins have a 3-7 record this season and are sitting third in the AFC East. They are 5-5 ATS, 6-4 in Over/Under and have a 1-4 home record and a 2-3 away record. The Dolphins are coming off a 30-13 home win against the Buffalo Bills and will face the Saints, Jets and Steelers next.

Offensively, the Dolphins average 21 points per game, ranking 26th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 25.6 points per game, which is 24th. Miami averages 299.3 total yards per game (192.1 passing and 107.2 rushing), while allowing 346.9 total yards per game (139.7 rushing and 207.2 passing).

Tua Tagovailoa leads the Dolphins with 1952 passing yards with 68.2% completed passes and 17 touchdowns. De’Von Achane leads the team in rushing yards with 780, while Jaylen Waddle has a team-high 46 receptions for 670 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Defensively, Jordyn Brooks has a team-high 105 total tackles (61 of them solo), while Bradley Chubb leads the team in sacks, with 5.0, while Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ifeatu Melifonwu each have one interception.

Washington Commanders Preview

The Washington Commanders have a 3-7 record this season and are sitting third in the NFC East. They are 3-7 ATS, 5-5 in Over/Under and have a 2-3 home record and a 1-4 away record. The Commanders are coming off a 22-40 home loss against the Detroit Lions and will face the Broncos, Vikings and Giants next.

Offensively, the Commanders average 22.3 points per game, ranking 22nd in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 28 points per game, which is 29th. Washington averages 325.3 total yards per game (190.1 passing and 135.2 rushing), while allowing 394.6 total yards per game (290.1 rushing and 104.5 passing).

Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders with 1184 passing yards with 62.5% completed passes and eight touchdowns. Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the team in rushing yards with 470, while Zach Ertz has a team-high 53 receptions for 534 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Defensively, Bobby Wagner has a team-high 99 total tackles (49 of them solo), while Frankie Luvu leads the team in sacks, with 2.0, while Mike Sainristil has three interceptions.

Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• Tua Tagovailoa’s team has won each of its last six games with him playing against Deatrich Wise Jr..
• The Commanders have lost eight of their last nine games in November.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites against NFC East opponents.
• The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
• The Commanders have lost the first quarter in each of their last seven games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last eight games as favorites against NFC opponents.

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Dolphins have lost each of their last four Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Commanders have won three of their last four games against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games at neutral venues.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in three of their last four games against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have lost the first half in each of their last four Week 11 games against NFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in each of their last two games against teams that held a losing record.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of the Commanders’ last nine games in November have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the Dolphins’ last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 23+ completions in each of his last eight Sunday appearances with the Dolphins as favorites.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 256+ passing yards in eight of the Dolphins’ last nine games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 82+ rushing yards in three of the Dolphins’ last four Sunday games.
• De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Dolphins’ last eight games as favorites.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has recorded 41+ receiving yards in each of his last four November appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Jaylen Waddle has recorded 82+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Dolphins’ last six games.
• Heading into Week 11, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (3 vs Chargers, Week 6).

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Marcus Mariota has recorded 207+ passing yards in three of his last four appearances as a starter.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 54+ receiving yards in six of his last seven appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt has recorded 33+ rushing yards in each of the Commanders’ last four games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• Terry McLaurin has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 63+ rushing and receiving yards in six of his last seven appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt has four rushing touchdowns through his first five career games – most by any player since De’Von Achane, (2024).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 11, the Dolphins rank T1st in the NFL in fumbles recovered (8) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Dolphins have suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 20+ points this season (2).
• Commanders – four different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 11.
• Commanders – four different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 11.

Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction

The Dolphins are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Commanders and the under is 4-1 in their 5 meetings.

In this Commanders vs Dolphins Prediction, the Dolphins are coming as -2.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 47.5 points. Both teams have been bad this season and have identical overall records, but the Commanders have won only once on the road and have been on a free fall lately, with five consecutive losses. The Dolphins have been dominating the Commanders historically and I expect them to get the job done today at home. Take the Miami Dolphins and lay the -2.5 points in this one.