Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) vs. Denver Broncos (9-7)
January 5, 2025 4:25 pm EDT
The Line: Denver Broncos -9.5; Over/Under: +40.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos meet in week 18 NFL action from Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday afternoon. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction.
Kansas City Chiefs Recap
The Kansas City Chiefs will be out to navigate the final week of the regular season sitting at 15-1 on the year after picking up a 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last time out. There are rumblings that there could be a lot of bodies sitting out for Kansas City in this game, with the top spot in the AFC already locked up.
Chiefs Not Interested In Playing Spoiler?
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 3,928 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on 67.5% passing while Kareem Hunt has rushed for 728 yards and 7 touchdowns. Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs in receiving with 97 grabs for 823 yards and 3 touchdowns. Xavier Worthy has 638 receiving yards with 6 touchdowns while Noah Gray and DeAndre Hopkins each have 436 receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Nick Bolton has a team-high 106 total tackles including 73 solo tackles while George Karlaftis has a team-high 8 sacks and the Chiefs’ defense as a whole has combined for 39 sacks and 13 interceptions.
Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 15 games against opponents on a losing streak.
- The Broncos have lost six of their last nine games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as road underdogs against AFC West opponents.
- The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five January games as favorites against AFC opponents.
Denver Broncos Recap
The Denver Broncos come into this game looking to punch their ticket to the postseason despite falling to 9-7 on the year thanks to a 30-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in OT in their last game.
Win And You’re In For the Broncos
Bo Nix has thrown for 3,454 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on 65.1% passing while also rushing for 383 yards and 4 touchdowns. Javonte Williams has a team-high 485 rushing yards with 4 touchdowns while Jaleel McLaughlin has 457 rushing yards. Courtland Sutton has a team-high 983 receiving yards and 76 receptions with 7 TDs. Marvin Mims Jr. has 452 receiving yards with 4 TDs and Devaughn Vele has 425 receiving yards as well on the year. Another three Broncos have 250+ receiving yards and three more have 150+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Brandon Jones has a team-high 114 total tackles including 79 solo tackles while Nik Bonitto has a team-high 11.5 sacks. Jonathon Cooper has 9.5 sacks Zach Allen has 8.5 sacks, while Pat Surtain II has a team-high 4 interceptions. As a unit, Denver’s defense has combined for 58 sacks and 15 interceptions on the year.
Why the Denver Broncos will win
- The favorites have won each of the Broncos’ last 12 games.
- The Chiefs have lost five of their last six games at Empower Field at Mile High following a road win.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as favorites.
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against AFC West opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Broncos’ last six games in January has gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the Chiefs’ last seven games against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
I’m on the Broncos here. It’s a massive number, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility to think that the Chiefs just mail it in here, as they have bigger fish to fry despite having the top seed in the AFC and the bye week sewn up. With Patrick Mahomes’ health a priority and nursing his ankle back to 100%, I could see a lot of backups playing. The thing is, though, The Broncos need this win. It’s not just like this is a pointless game on the other side. It’s a win, and you’re in for a Broncos team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015. I think the Broncos want to leave little to chance and put a bruising on KC. Give me the Broncos.
