Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 11/16/25 NFL Picks Today

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos meet Sunday in NFL action from Empower Field at Mile High. Here’s a Broncos vs Chiefs prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Broncos vs Chiefs pick.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Chiefs opened up the 2025 campaign with a shaky 2-3 run. The wins in that time were over the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens; otherwise it was losses to the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles. KC got it going with a three-game win streak after that thought taking out the Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders. In the win over the Commanders on October 27, Kansas City notched 14 points in the third quarter on the way to a 28-7 outcome. The offense gained 432 yards total, 148 rush yards, 6.4 yards per play and 26 first downs but did have a couple of picks. The nine penalties for 95 yards didn’t help matters, but the defense kept the Commanders in check.

In their latest outing back on November 2 versus the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City took another loss. The Chiefs were down 21-13 by the end of the first half, then posted an 8-7 run the rest of the way in a 28-21 loss. QB patrick Mahomes logged 250 yards and a pick on 15-of-34 passing, and Kareem Hunt led the rush with 49 yards and a TD on 11 totes. Leading receiver Rashee Rice caught four balls for 80 yards in the losing road effort as well.

Denver Broncos Betting Preview

Over on the Broncos’ side, they kicked off the season with a win over the Tennessee Titans then lost to the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers in the next pair of outings. Denver then caught fire, taking out the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans in their next six games. In the win over the Texans, the Broncos were down 15-7 heading into the final quarter then put up an 11-0 run for an 18-15 comeback win on the road. Denver’s offense notched 271 total yards in that one with 4.4 yards per play, 15 first downs and two turnovers. The defense held Houston to just 268 yards on the other side with 15 first downs and 3-of-17 on third-down tries.

Matched up against the rival Las Vegas Raiders last Thursday, the Broncos’ streak continued. Denver was down 7-0 early but held the opposition in check the rest of the way during a 10-7 nail-biter victory at home. QB Bo Nix had a 16-of-28 line for 150 yards, one TD and two picks, while lead rusher JK Dobbins had 77 yards on 18 totes. Pat Bryant’s lone 43-yard catch put him atop the receivers, but Troy Franklin was close behind on 40 yards and a score off five catches in the winning effort for the Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Denver Broncos will win

• The Broncos have won each of their last 10 home games.
• The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the Chiefs’ last six games.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games in November.
• The home team has won the first half in each of the Chiefs’ last five Week 11 games.
• The Broncos have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games following a home win.
• The Broncos have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a winning record.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 10 November games against AFC West opponents.
• The Broncos have lost four of their last five games when playing with a rest disadvantage against the Chiefs.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in four of their last five road games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 11 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have won the first quarter in four of their last five games against the Broncos following a loss.
• The Broncos have lost the first half in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs following a win.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Broncos’ last six Week 11 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Chiefs’ last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between AFC West teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in each of the Broncos’ last four games against the Chiefs.
• Bo Nix has recorded 247+ passing yards in three of the Broncos’ last four home games.
• Courtland Sutton has recorded 50+ receiving yards in 10 of the Broncos’ last 11 games as underdogs.
• Bo Nix has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Broncos’ last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• J.K. Dobbins has recorded 75+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his last 10 appearances against division opponents.
• Bo Nix has recorded 22+ rushing yards in each of the Broncos’ last six games as underdogs.
• Heading into Week 11, Bo Nix ranks 1st amongst qualified players for sack percentage (2.8%) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Travis Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in six of the Chiefs’ last seven Week 11 games.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 24+ completions in each of his last six appearances against the Broncos.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 266+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last six November games against AFC West opponents.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 64+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 13 November games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Marquise Brown has recorded 25+ rushing and receiving yards in 14 of his last 15 Sunday regular season appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 49+ rushing yards in each of his five previous November appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Heading into Week 11, Kareem Hunt ranks 1st in the league amongst qualified players for broken tackle percentage (73.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Broncos – 14 different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 11.
• Heading into Week 11, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in sacks (46.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (23.5%) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Chiefs have recorded the equal-most wins by a margin of 10+ points this season (5).

Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction

I’m going to stay with the Chiefs. Kansas City has had a lot of time to rest and recover after their tough road loss to Buffalo, so they should be ready for this matchup. The Chiefs put up 305 total yards versus the Bills, along with 16 first downs and a rough 3-of-13 on third-down conversion attempts. On defense KC gave up 404 yards with 6.3 yards per play, 23 first downs and 7-of-12 on third downs. The good news is that the Chiefs are still scoring well; they’ve hit 21 or more points in seven straight games, going 5-2 in that stretch.

As for the Broncos, their charmed season continued last Thursday versus the Raiders. Denver gained just 220 yards on offense though, and had two turnovers with 11 team penalties. It’s going to take a much cleaner effort to stay with KC on Sunday.