Dolphins vs Jets Prediction 9/29/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Dolphins vs Jets prediction for this NFL game on Monday, September 29th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 4 matchup.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins are 0-3 this year after they lost to Buffalo by a score of 31-21 in their last game. Miami was tied at 14 at halftime and tied at 21 in the fourth quarter, but they allowed the last 10 points for the loss. The Dolphins were out gained by a total of 360-276, went 10-15 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Tua Tagovailoa went 22-34 for 146 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while De’Von Achane rushed 12 times for 62 yards. Tyreek Hill led the Miami receivers with five catches for 49 yards and one score. The Miami defense recorded two sacks and two tackles for loss in the game. 

Miami also has losses to Indianapolis by a score of 33-8 and New England by a score of 33-27 in their first two games. The Dolphins are averaging 18.7 points per game with 192.0 passing yards and 89.7 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 32.3 points against per game this season. Tua Tagovailoa has completed 69.7% of his passes for 575 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Tyreek Hill has caught 15 passes for 198 yards and one touchdown. The leading rusher for Miami is De’Von Achane with 147 yards on 30 carries this year. 

New York Jets Betting Preview

The New York Jets are 0-3 this season after they lost to Tampa Bay by a score of 29-27 last week. New York trailed 23-6 in the third quarter, but they came all the way back to lead 27-26, before allowing a field goal with no time left in the loss. The Jets were out gained by a total of 347-267, went 3-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Tyrod Taylor went 26-36 for 197 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while also rushing for 48 yards on eight carries. Garrett Wilson led the receivers with 10 catches for 84 yards and one score in the loss. The NYJ defense recorded one sack and seven tackles for loss in the game. 

New York also has losses against Pittsburgh by a score of 34-32 and Buffalo by a score of 30-10. The Jets are averaging 23.0 points per game with 144.7 passing yards and 127.0 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 31.0 points against per game this season. Justin Fields is dealing with an injury, so we may see Taylor under center once again in this contest. Breece Hall has rushed 38 times for 157 yards, while Garrett Wilson has caught 21 passes for 229 yards and two scores this season. 

Why the Dolphins will beat the Jets

• The Jets have lost each of their last 13 games against AFC East opponents on a losing streak.
• The Dolphins have won each of their last nine home games against the Jets.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites following a Division game.
• The Jets have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 September games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Jets have lost the first quarter in each of their last five Monday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Jets have lost the first half in each of their last six games as underdogs following a loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Dolphins’ last nine games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Jets’ last seven Week 4 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total points line.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 288+ passing yards in each of his last four appearances with the Dolphins as favorites.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 55+ rushing yards in three of the Dolphins’ last four games.
• De’Von Achane has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Dolphins’ last six home games.
• Jaylen Waddle has recorded 53+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine home appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Tyreek Hill has recorded 69+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances with the Dolphins as favorites following a loss.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 26+ completions in each of his last five appearances with the Dolphins as favorites.
• Heading into Week 4, Jaelan Phillips ranks T1st in the NFL in quarterback hurries (5) this season.

New York Jets Player Prop Facts

• Garrett Wilson has scored a touchdown in each of the Jets’ last three road games.
• Tyrod Taylor has recorded 197+ passing yards in five of his last six appearances as a starter.
• Justin Fields has recorded 17+ rushing yards in 17 of his last 19 appearances against division opponents.
• Braelon Allen has recorded 26+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Jets’ last six road games.
• Allen Lazard has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his last seven September appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Tyrod Taylor has recorded 23+ completions in each of his last three appearances as a starter.
• Heading into Week 4, Garrett Wilson ranks T1st in the AFC for receptions (21) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in points allowed per game (32.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Dolphins rank 1st in the NFL in average punt return (28.8 yards) this season.
• Jets – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Jets rank 1st in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game (179.0) this season.

Dolphins vs Jets Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup looking for their first win of the season, but the good news is that one side will get that win here (most likely). Miami has allowed 31+ points in all three games this year, but they were much more competitive against the Bills last week. New York is dealing with a backup quarterback, but they have also had issues on defense, allowing at least 29 points in all three games. It is tough to trust either side in this one, but I will take Miami at home, as they have looked better in their last two games. 

David Racey went 8-0 (100%) in the NFL last week and he is #1 on the NFL leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!