Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Prediction 10/11/26 NFL Picks Today

The Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers meet Sunday in NFL action from Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Here’s a Packers vs Bears prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Packers vs Bears pick.

Chicago Bears Betting Preview

Chicago has had a few ups and downs over the course of four games so far this year. The Bears’ opener was a wild one, as they rolled to a 59-37 win over the Carolina Panthers. Game two was just the opposite. Chicago took on Minnesota and ended up losing at home 9-3. The Bears did look good on “Monday Night Football” though, beating the Eagles 27-7.

Last weekend versus the New York Jets, the Bears were able to keep it going. Chicago scored a TD in the first quarter and a couple of field goals in the second made it 13-3 at the break. The Bears kept the Jets at bay from there and won it 23-12 in the end. QB Tyson Bagent was 25-of-34 for 268 yards and a pick. Kyle Monangai had 30 carries for 146 yards and two TDs.

Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

Over on the Packers’ side, they’ve had some ups and downs as well this year—with perhaps more downs than ups. Green Bay opened the season with a road trip to Minnesota and a 39-22 loss. Game two versus the New York Jets was a hard-fought 20-17 road victory in overtime. The Packers fell back into the loss column versus Atlanta 35-14 in game three.

Matched up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend the Pack put up a touchdown and a field goal in the second quarter to go up 10-7. Green Bay added another TD in the third and held on tight for a 17-14 road victory. QB Jordan Love was 22-of-30 for 197 yards, two scores and an interception. Christian Watson had three catches for 47 yards in the win.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Green Bay Packers will win

• The Packers have won each of their last eight games in October.
• The Bears have lost each of their last seven games at Lambeau Field following a win.
• The Bears have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games at Lambeau Field following a win.
• The Packers have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs without Jordan Love.
• The Bears have lost the first half in each of their last six games at Lambeau Field following a win.
• The Packers have won the first quarter in eight of their last nine games as underdogs following a win.
• The Packers have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.

Why the Chicago Bears will win

• The Bears have won each of their last seven games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• The Packers have lost each of their last five games without MarShawn Lloyd.
• The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games without MarShawn Lloyd.
• The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five Week 5 games.
• The Bears have won the first quarter in each of their last four games in October.
• The Bears have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 12 games as favorites following a win.
• The Bears have won the first half in each of their last five October games as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Bears’ last 10 Sunday road games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the last eight games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Packers’ last four games following a win have gone OVER the total points line.

Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts

• Christian Watson has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances against NFC North opponents.
• Jordan Love has recorded 246+ passing yards in each of his five previous appearances with the Packers as home underdogs.
• Tyrod Taylor has recorded 25+ rushing yards in each of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog against NFC opponents.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 10+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 13 October appearances.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 10+ receiving yards in each of his last 13 October appearances.
• Josh Jacobs has scored the last touchdown in each of his last three home appearances against NFC opponents.
• Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last eight home appearances against NFC opponents.
• Jordan Love has recorded 22+ completions in each of his five previous appearances with the Packers as home underdogs.
• Tucker Kraft has recorded the equal-most drops (5) of any player this season.

Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts

• D’Andre Swift has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight October appearances.
• D’Andre Swift has recorded 73+ rushing yards in each of the Bears’ last four October games against NFC opponents.
• Kyle Monangai has recorded 47+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bears’ last eight games following a win.
• Caleb Williams has recorded 239+ passing yards in each of the Bears’ last four games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• Rome Odunze has recorded 41+ receiving yards in each of his last seven Sunday appearances.
• Tyson Bagent has recorded 20+ completions in four of his five previous appearances as a starter.
• Heading into Week 5, Kyle Monangai has recorded the most rushing attempts in a single game this season (30 vs Jets, Week 4).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 5, the Packers rank 32nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (58.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Packers rank 32nd in the NFL in forced fumbles (0) this season.
• Bears – eight different players have recorded at least one touchdown this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
• Bears – three different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.

Packers vs Bears Prediction

I’ll go with the Bears. Chicago looked pretty good on both sides of the ball last weekend, even though it was against the lowly Jets. The Bears notched 34 first downs and 492 total yards with 260 rushing yards in their win. On defense Chicago held New York to just seven first downs and 157 total yards. It wasn’t perfect though, as the Bears did have a couple of turnovers. Still, 3-1 looks pretty nice.

As for the Pack, they posted a tepid 15 first downs and a rough 2-of-10 on third-down tries in their three-point road win over Tampa Bay last weekend. Green Bay managed 283 total yards with two turnovers and 10 penalties for 68 yards, but did have a couple of takeaways on defense. Chicago’s going to be a little tougher, even at home.