Texans vs Jaguars Prediction 11/9/25 NFL Picks Today

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans meet in week 10 NFL action from NRG Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Texans vs Jaguars Prediction.

Jacksonville Jaguars Recap

The Jacksonville Jaguars come into this game looking to build on their 30-29 win over Las Vegas to sit at 5-3 this season. After this game, Jacksonville will head home for a game against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Jaguars Snap Two-Game Slide

Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 1,840 yards, 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 59.7% passing while Travis Etienne Jr. leads the Jaguars on the ground with 598 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Brian Thomas Jr. has a team-high 30 catches for 420 yards and a touchdown while Travis Hunter has 298 receiving yards and Parker Washington has 297 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Foyesade Oluokun has a team-high 66 total tackles while Devin Lloyd has a team-high 4 interceptions. Arik Armstead also has 3.5 sacks to lead the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense as a whole has combined for 10 sacks and 11 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Jacksonville Jaguars will win

• The Texans have lost four of their last five games as favorites before a Division game.
• The Jaguars have won each of their last four November games against AFC opponents.
• The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs against AFC South opponents.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six November games as home favorites.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Lawrence has scored two touchdowns in three of his last four November appearances.
• Trevor Lawrence has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four November appearances.
• Travis Etienne has recorded 71+ rushing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last three road games.
• Jordan Akins has recorded 10+ receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a road underdog against AFC South opponents.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 235+ passing yards in five of the Jaguars’ last six November games against AFC opponents.
• Travis Etienne has recorded 70+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Jaguars’ last six road games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Jaguars’ last six November games against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 10, Devin Lloyd ranks T1st in the NFL in interceptions (4) this season.

Houston Texans Recap

The Houston Texans come into this game looking to rebound from an 18-15 loss at the hands of the Denver Broncos last time out to sit at 3-5 this season. After this game, Houston will head on the road for a game against the Tennessee Titans.

Texans Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

C.J. Stroud has 1,702 yards, 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 66.5% passing while Davis Mills has thrown for 160 yards on 55.9% passing. Nick Chubb has rushed for 355 yards and 2 touchdowns as well this season. Woody Marks also has 241 rushing yards while Nico Collins leads Houston’s receivers with 414 receiving yards and 3 TDs and Dalton Schultz has 38 grabs for 385 yards. Xavier Hutchinson has 222 receiving yards and 3 TDs and four more Texans have 100+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Kamari Lassiter leads the Texans with 54 total tackles in addition to a pair of interceptions while Jalen Pitre has 3 INTs and Will Anderson Jr. has 6 sacks. Danielle Hunter also has 4 sacks as well this season. As a unit, Houston’s defense has combined for 17 sacks and 9 interceptions up to this point in the year.

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The Jaguars have lost each of their last 11 November games as road underdogs.
• The Texans have won each of their last eight games as home favorites following a home loss.
• The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as home favorites following a home loss.
• The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as road underdogs following a road win.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Nico Collins has recorded 79+ receiving yards in each of his eight previous appearances with the Texans as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 233+ passing yards in each of the Texans’ last seven games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 50+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 17 appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
• Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in each of his six previous appearances against the Jaguars.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 41+ rushing yards in each of his last 24 appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 22+ completions in eight of the Texans’ last nine games as favorites following a loss.
• Heading into Week 10, Ka’imi Fairbairn ranks 1st in the NFL in made field goals (22) this season.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Jaguars’ last 10 games following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the Texans’ last eight home games against the Jaguars have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.

Texans vs Jaguars Prediction

I’m on the under here. I think Houston’s defense will show up once again against Trevor Lawrence, but I also think that Houston could have some issues at QB. Especially if Davis Mills has to get the start at QB with CJ Stroud dealing with a concussion. I think this is going to be a low-scoring division battle, so give me the under here.