Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 12-15-24 NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, December 15th at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 15 matchup.

Houston Texans Betting Preview

The Houston Texans are 8-5 this year after they defeated Jacksonville by a score of 23-20 in their last game. Houston led 23-6 early in the fourth quarter, but they barely were able to hang on for the win and they failed to cover. The Texans were outgained by a total of 373-326, won the turnover battle 1-0, and went 5-13 on third down in the game. CJ Stroud threw for 242 yards and one touchdown, while Joe Mixon rushed for 101 yards and one score on 20 carries. 

Prior to that game, the Texans lost to Tennessee by a score of 32-27 but did beat Dallas by a score of 34-10 before that. The Houston offense has scored 23.7 points per game with 221.2 passing yards and 114.1 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 22.2 points per game this season. CJ Stroud has completed 63.3% of his passes for 3,117 yards, 15 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, while Nico Collins has caught 49 passes for 832 yards and four scores this year. 

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins are 6-7 this season after they defeated the Jets in overtime by a score of 32-26 in their last game. Miami trailed 26-23 with 52 seconds left in the game, but they were able to force overtime, where they picked up the win on a touchdown by Jonnu Smith. The Dolphins were outgained by a total of 402-375, tied the turnover battle at zero, and went 1-9 on third down in the game. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns, while Tyreek Hill caught 10 passes for 115 yards and one touchdown in the win. 

Prior to that game, the Dolphins lost to Green Bay by a score of 30-17 but did beat New England, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles before that. The Miami offense has scored 20.3 points per game with 226.5 passing yards and 105.2 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 22.5 points per game this season. Tua Tagovailoa has completed 73.8% of his passes for 2,456 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Tyreek Hill has caught 65 passes for 769 yards and five scores.

Why the Dolphins will beat the Texans

• The Dolphins have won each of their last six games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Texans have lost six of their last nine games as home favorites following a win.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites following a road win.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six Sunday games.
• The Texans have lost the first quarter in six of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Dolphins have won the first half in each of their last six Sunday games.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Texans’ last eight Sunday games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Dolphins’ last eight December games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Joe Mixon has scored the first touchdown in four of the Texans’ last five games.
• Nico Collins has scored at least one touchdown in 10 of his last 11 home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Dalton Schultz has recorded 27+ receiving yards in seven of the Texans’ last eight Sunday games.
• Joe Mixon has recorded 101+ rushing yards in six of his last seven appearances against AFC opponents.
• Joe Mixon has recorded 117+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 274+ passing yards in eight of his 10 previous home appearances against AFC opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 23+ completions in five of the Texans’ last six games as home favorites.
• Derek Stingley Jr. is just one away from 10 career interceptions.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Odell Beckham Jr. has recorded 13+ receiving yards in each of his 12 previous December road appearances.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 63+ rushing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four regular season games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Jaylen Waddle has recorded 52+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven December appearances.
• Jonnu Smith has scored the first touchdown in three of the Dolphins’ last four games following a win.
• Tyreek Hill has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight December road appearances.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 288+ passing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games.
• Tua Tagovailoa has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Dolphins’ last four games.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 25+ completions in each of the Dolphins’ last five Sunday games.
• Heading into Week 15, De’Von Achane ranks 1st in the AFC amongst qualified players for catch rate (88.7%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 15, the Texans rank T1st in the NFL in H1 win percentage (84.6) this season.
• Heading into Week 15, the Texans rank 2nd in the NFL in sacks (42.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 15, the Dolphins rank T31st in the NFL in Q2 win percentage (15.4) this season.
• Heading into Week 15, the Dolphins rank T30th in the NFL in sacks (24.0) this season.

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 

Miami comes into this matchup after winning four of their last five games and they have scored at least 32 points in three of their last four contests (all at home). The Dolphins are just 2-4 on the road this season, while the Texans are 4-2 at home. Houston has won two of their last three games, but they really haven’t played very well over the last month or so. I don’t like how Houston is playing right now, but it is also very hard to trust the Dolphins on the road. I do think the Miami offense will be able to operate very well in these conditions and I think they are going to pick up a big win on the road here.