Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction 11/9/25 NFL Picks Today

The Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts meet Sunday in NFL action from Olympiastadion. Here’s a Colts vs Falcons prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Colts vs Falcons pick.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Falcons kicked off their 2025 campaign with a 1-2 run, beating the Vikings by a fairly significant margin in between losses to the Buccaneers and Panthers. After that came wins over the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills, then a couple of losses to the San Francisco 49ers and the Miami Dolphins. In the loss to the Dolphins on October 26, the Falcons posted just 213 yards on offense with 168 pass yards, 45 rush yards, 4.3 yards per play, 11 first downs and a rough 2-of-11 success rate on third-down conversion attempts. The defense gave up 338 yards on the other side with 6-of-13 on third downs and 24 first downs.

In their latest outing Sunday versus the New England Patriots, the Falcons were down by 10 points heading into the final quarter. Atlanta made things interesting with a 9-0 run from there but ended up losing tough one on the road 24-23. QB Michael Penix finished with a 22-of-37 line for 221 yards and three scores while Bijan Robinson carried 12 times for 46 yards. Drake London added nine catches for 118 yards and three touchdowns as the lead receiver in the losing effort for the Falcons.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

Over on the Colts’ side, they opened up the year with three straight wins, taking out the Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos and Tennessee Titans ahead of a one-score loss to the LA Rams. Indianapolis got back to their winning ways over the next four outings though, dispatching the Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, LA Chargers and Tennessee Titans in that quartet. Matched up against the Titans, the Colts posted 420 total yards with 8.1 yards per play and 21 first downs but also went just 3-of-9 on third-down tries. The defense held strong on third downs themselves, allowing just 6-of-15 to the opposition in the home win.

Matched up against the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend, the Colts held an early lead then gave up 17 unanswered points in the second quarter. Indianapolis scored 13 more points in the fourth but it wasn’t enough in a 27-20 loss. QB Daniel Jones finished with 342 yards, one TD and three picks while also scoring a rush TD. Jonathan Taylor added 14 carries for 45 yards as the team’s top rusher and both Alec Pierce (six catches) and Michael Pittman (nine catches) each had 115 yards in the defeat.

Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends: Week 10

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Colts have won each of their last five games following a loss.
• The Falcons have lost each of their last four Week 10 games.
• The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last seven November games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Week 10 games.
• The Colts have won the first half in each of their last five games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games.
• The Colts have won the first quarter in each of their last three games.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Falcons’ last six Week 10 games.
• The Colts have lost six of their last seven games against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against NFC opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Falcons’ last four games.
• The Falcons have won the first quarter in each of their last five November games against AFC South opponents.
• The Falcons have won the first half in each of their last four November games against AFC South opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Falcons’ last 10 Week 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the Colts’ last six games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Colts’ last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 20+ rushing yards in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC opponents.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 135+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Colts’ last four games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored the first touchdown in each of the Colts’ last three games against NFC South opponents.
• Michael Pittman Jr. has recorded 61+ receiving yards in each of the Colts’ last seven November games as favorites.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 272+ passing yards in each of the Colts’ last three games.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Colts’ last four games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• Daniel Jones has recorded 23+ completions in six of his eight previous appearances against NFC South opponents.
• Heading into Week 10, Daniel Jones ranks 1st in the NFL in passing yards (2404) this season.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Drake London has recorded 70+ receiving yards in each of the Falcons’ last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 230+ passing yards in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Drake London has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Falcons’ last five games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 90+ rushing yards in four of the Falcons’ last five games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 124+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Falcons’ last four games as underdogs.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last seven Week 10 appearances.
• Heading into Week 10, Drake London has recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Patriots, Week 9).

Matchup/League Facts

• Colts – seven different players have recorded 50+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
• Colts – four different players have recorded 2.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 10.
• Heading into Week 10, the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (158.1) this season.
• Heading into Week 10, the Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in average kickoff return (21.5 yards) this season.

Colts vs Falcons Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Colts. Indianapolis’ defense did a pretty good job in their loss to the Steelers, notching a nice statistical game with 225 yards, 17 first downs, 17 first downs and 4-of-12 on third downs allowed. Thing is, the offense ruined it on the other side. Indy had a whopping six turnovers in the seven-point loss and went a tepid 6-of-14 on third-down conversion attempts. It was the first time Indianapolis had failed to score at least 31 points since way back on September 28. All the fumbles and picks (three each) cost them the game.

As for Atlanta, they posted just 288 total yards in their loss to the Patriots alongside 17 first downs and a pretty miserable 1-of-10 on third-down tries. The Falcons did make a game of it, though. The 23 points were a welcome sign after consecutive weeks with just 10 points in each (both losses). I like the Colts to bounce back in this one and take care of Atlanta in a manageable home game.