Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction 1-5-25 NFL Picks

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts will meet Sunday in NFL action from Lucas Oil Stadium. Here’s an Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Colts vs Jaguars pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

The Jaguars got off to a rough 2-9 start, falling to the Dolphins, Browns, Bills, Texans, Bears, Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions in that time. Jacksonville hit a 1-3 stretch coming out of the bye featuring losses to the Texans, Jets and Raiders.

In the Titans matchup on Sunday, the Jags held a 13-3 edge by halftime. Jacksonville would give up an unanswered TD in the third, but then hit a 7-3 run the rest of the way for a 20-13 victory. QB Mac Jones posted 174 yards with two touchdowns. Travis Etienne carried 15 times for 49 yards, and Brian Thomas caught seven balls for 91 yards and a TD of his own.

The Jaguars aren’t doing so well this year when it comes to scoring. They’re averaging just 18.6 points per game while giving up 25.6 points per game on the other side. Jacksonville has 18 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions this year, though to be fair they’ve dealt with some injury issues at that position this season.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

Over on the Colts’ side, they kicked things off on a 4-3 run with wins over the Bears, Steelers, Titans and Dolphins. Indianapolis beat only the Jets and Patriots over the next six games, then after the bye fell to Denver before another win over the Titans.

Matched up against the Giants in their last outing, the Colts played a wild game. Indianapolis was trialing 21-13 by halftime, scoring in every quarter (and giving up points in every quarter). When the dust settled we had a 45-33 Giants victory that squashed any remote hopes the Colts had of making the playoffs. QB Joe Flacco logged 330 yards with two scores and two interceptions. Leading the rush was Jonathan Taylor with 125 yards and two touchdowns. Alec Pierce added 122 yards and a score off six receptions, and Michael Pittman caught nine balls for 109 yards and a TD.

Indianapolis isn’t scoring so well this year themselves. The Colts have averaged just 21.9 points per game while giving up 25.3 points per game on the other side. Indy has the same amount of passing touchdowns as they do interceptions (19).

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The favorites have won each of the Jaguars’ last 11 games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
• The Jaguars have lost 11 of their last 13 road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last five games against AFC South opponents.
• The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games following a win.
• The Jaguars have lost the first quarter in six of their last eight road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Jaguars have lost the first half in each of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Colts have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games against AFC South opponents.

Why the Jacksonville Jaguars will win

• The Colts have lost each of their last six games in January.
• The Jaguars have won each of their last two games as road underdogs following a Division win.
• The Jaguars have covered the spread in seven of their last eight January games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games in January.
• The Colts have lost the first quarter in each of their last six games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• The Jaguars have won the first half in each of their last six games against the Colts.
• The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Jaguars’ last eight January games against AFC South opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Colts’ last eight games at Lucas Oil Stadium following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan Taylor has scored two or more touchdowns in three of his last four Sunday appearances with the Colts as favorites.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of his last 13 appearances with the Colts as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• Michael Pittman Jr. has recorded 64+ receiving yards in five of his last six appearances against the Jaguars.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 96+ rushing yards in each of his last six appearances with the Colts as favorites.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances with the Colts as home favorites.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 122+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his last six appearances with the Colts as home favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Heading into Week 18, Alec Pierce ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (21.9) this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Mac Jones has recorded 220+ passing yards in four of the Jaguars’ last five Sunday games.
• Travis Etienne has recorded 40+ rushing yards in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Jaguars as underdogs following a win.
• Travis Etienne has recorded 58+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Jaguars’ last 11 games against AFC South opponents.
• Brian Thomas has scored at least one touchdown in seven of the Jaguars’ last eight games against AFC opponents.
• Brian Thomas has recorded 86+ receiving yards in seven of the Jaguars’ last eight games against AFC opponents.
• Mac Jones has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of his five previous appearances in January.
• Ronald Darby is just two away from 10 career interceptions.

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Jaguars. That said, there’s not much to get excited about here. Both teams are out of contention (Jacksonville has been for a while) and just finishing out the schedule before they go play golf during a warm and sunny offseason. In any case, Jacksonville posted a tepid 295 yards (173 passing) and 18 first downs in their win over the Titans, but stayed pretty well-disciplined with zero turnovers. Jacksonville has been below 21 points in six of the last seven games now, so they’re going to need a big push offensively in order to keep pace with Indy here. The line is less than a touchdown but I think it’s doable–even on the road against a potentially feisty division opponent like the Colts. 

Speaking of the Colts, they gave up 389 yards and 15 first downs on Sunday in a weird game that vacated sole control of the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft out of the Giants’ hands. New York’s 45 points were the team’s most since way back in 2015, so it’s not exactly a performance Indy will be smiling about. The good news is that the Colts have a combined 71 points in the last two games.

The last time these teams met up was a close one, ending in a 37-34 Jaguars win at home. Jacksonville put up 497 yards (371 passing) in that one with a healthy Trevor Lawrence (remember him?) in the game. I wouldn’t think this one would finish as such a high total with both teams in the dumps, and I think the Jags can eke into cover territory if all goes well.