Jaguars vs Patriots Prediction 9/27/26 NFL Picks Today

The New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet Sunday in NFL action from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. Here’s a Jaguars vs Patriots prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Jaguars vs Patriots pick.

New England Patriots Betting Preview

New England opened up the year with a matchup versus the Seattle Seahawks. In that one the Pats were up 10-3 going into the final frame but got outscored 10-0 from there for a tough loss on the road 13-10. QB Drake Maye was 23-of-33 for 178 yards, one TD and three picks. Tops in receiving was Mack Hollins with four catches for 51 yards in the losing effort.

In game two versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England came out of the break with a 10-3 advantage. The Patriots ended up scoring in every quarter along the way to a 20-3 victory at home. Maye was 14-of-22 for 208 yards and an interception. Romeo Doubs caught three balls for 96 yards and TreVeyon Henderson had 16 carries for 76 yards and a score.

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

Over on the Jaguars’ side, they got off to a nice start this year with a home matchup versus the Cleveland Browns. Jacksonville scored double-digit points in each of the first three quarters there, eventually taking the win 34-10. QB Trevor Lawrence was 18-of-23 for 245 yards and four scores. Parker Washington caught five balls for 83 yards and a touchdown as the lead receiver.

Matched up against Denver for game two, the Jags were in control by the end of the third quarter, up by a score of 13-6. Jacksonville gave up a pair of unanswered TDs in the fourth however, leading to a 20-13 loss. Lawrence went 17-of-29 for 189 yards and a pick this time. Bhayshul Tuten added 13 carries for 65 yards and Washington had seven catches for 98 yards.

Why the Jacksonville Jaguars will win

• The favorites have won each of the Patriots’ last eight games.
• The Patriots have lost each of their last six games as underdogs against AFC South opponents.
• The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last seven games at EverBank Stadium following a loss.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 September games as underdogs.
• The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in 10 of their last 11 Sunday games at EverBank Stadium.
• The Patriots have lost the first quarter in five of their last six Week 3 games.
• The Jaguars have won the first half in each of their last six games in September.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Patriots have won each of their last nine Sunday road games.
• The Jaguars have lost each of their last four games without Josh Hines-Allen.
• The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last six games played on the East Coast.
• The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games without Brenton Strange.
• The Patriots have won the first half in seven of their last eight games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games played on the East Coast.
• The Jaguars have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games as favorites against AFC East opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Patriots’ last seven games as underdogs without Rhamondre Stevenson have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Jaguars’ last six home games following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the last five Sunday games at EverBank Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Brian Thomas has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Jaguars’ last four games against AFC East opponents.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 17+ rushing yards in six of the Jaguars’ last seven games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• Brian Thomas has scored the first touchdown in each of the Jaguars’ last three games against AFC East opponents.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 229+ passing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last six regular season games as favorites.
• Jakobi Meyers has recorded 44+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last eight regular season appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC East opponents.
• Jakobi Meyers has recorded 38+ receiving yards in each of his last 13 regular season appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC East opponents.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Jaguars’ last five Week 3 games.
• Heading into Week 3, Trevor Lawrence has recorded the equal-most passing touchdowns in a single game this season (4 vs Browns, Week 1).

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Rhamondre Stevenson has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Patriots’ last five regular season road games against AFC opponents.
• Mack Hollins has recorded 41+ receiving yards in each of the Patriots’ last five games as underdogs.
• TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 53+ rushing yards in 10 of his last 11 regular season appearances.
• Drake Maye has recorded 230+ passing yards in each of the Patriots’ last six road games played on the East Coast.
• TreVeyon Henderson has recorded 53+ rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 regular season appearances.
• Drake Maye has recorded 21+ completions in each of the Patriots’ last four regular season games against AFC South opponents.
• Heading into Week 3, Drake Maye has thrown the most interceptions in a single game this season (3 vs Seahawks, Week 1).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 3, the Jaguars rank T1st in the NFL in H1 opponent points per game (1.5) this season.
• Heading into Week 3, the Jaguars rank T1st in the NFL in Q2 win percentage (100.0) this season.
• Patriots – six different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Heading into Week 3, the Patriots rank 1st in the NFL in points allowed per game (8.0) this season.

Jaguars vs Patriots Prediction

I’ll go with New England. The Pats got back on track with their win over the Steelers last weekend, but it wasn’t pretty on offense. New England had a couple of turnovers, went just 4-of-12 on third downs and had only 15 first downs. Still, the 327 total yards got the job done. The defense was great on 3.5 yards per play, 16 first downs and 2-of-12 on third downs allowed—not to mention the two takeaways. It was something of a gritty win for the Patriots (even though it was by three scores) and I think they’ll keep rolling this weekend.

As for Jacksonville, they had a tricky Denver team on the ropes in the fourth quarter but couldn’t pull off the big road win last weekend. The Jags offense was pretty stagnant most of the day, totaling 268 yards, 4.9 yards per play and 5-of-12 on third downs. Denver’s 10 penalties didn’t even help. Jacksonville has another tough matchup here.