Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction 11-10-24 NFL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, November 10th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week ten matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 8-0 this season after they defeated Tampa Bay in overtime by a score of 30-24 on Monday. Kansas City trailed 17-10 in the fourth quarter, but they ended up allowing the Bucs to tie the game late in the fourth, before winning in overtime. The Chiefs out gained Tampa Bay by a total of 384-284, lost the turnover battle 1-0, and went 12-18 on third down in the game. Patrick Mahomes threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, while Kareem Hunt rushed for 106 yards and one score. 

Prior to that game, the Chiefs won their first seven games of the season, including wins against Baltimore and San Francisco. The KC offense has scored 25.4 points per game with 230.1 passing yards and 122.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 18.4 points against per game this season. Patrick Mahomes has completed 69.9% of his passes for 1,942 yards, 11 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, while Travis Kelce has caught 52 passes for 435 yards and one touchdown this year. 

Denver Broncos Betting Preview

The Denver Broncos are 5-4 this year after they lost to Baltimore by a score of 41-10 in their last game. Denver cut the deficit to 17-10 in the second quarter, but they allowed the last 24 points in the game for the loss. The Broncos were out gained by a total of 396-319, lost the turnover battle 1-0, and went 6-14 on third down in the game. Bo Nix threw for 223 yards and one pick, while Courtland Sutton caught seven passes for 122 yards in the loss. 

Prior to that game, the Broncos defeated Carolina by a score of 28-14 and New Orleans by a score of 33-10. The Denver offense has scored 20.3 points per game with 187.1 passing yards and 121.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 17.9 points against per game this season. Bo Nix has completed 62.6% of his passes for 1,753 yards, eight touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Courtland Sutton has caught 36 passes for 499 yards and two scores. 

Why the Chiefs will beat the Broncos

• The Chiefs have won each of their last nine Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Broncos have lost each of their last eight games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last nine Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four home games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chiefs have won the first quarter in eight of their last nine games after coming off overtime.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last nine games after coming off overtime.

Why the Broncos will beat the Chiefs

• The Chiefs have lost each of their last six November home games against AFC West opponents.
• The Broncos have won each of their last three games as underdogs against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Broncos have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five November games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as favorites against AFC West opponents.
• The road team has won the first half in 10 of the Broncos’ last 11 Week 10 games.
• The Broncos have scored the first touchdown in six of their last eight games following a loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Broncos’ last six November games as road underdogs against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight November games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last three games between AFC West teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Kareem Hunt has scored the first touchdown in three of the Chiefs’ last four games following a win.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 91+ rushing yards in six of his seven previous appearances with the Chiefs as favorites following a home win.
• Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last nine appearances following a home win.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 298+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last seven November games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Samaje Perine has recorded 35+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven November appearances.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 75+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 10 November games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last six November games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
• Patrick Mahomes has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of the Chiefs’ last three Week 10 games.
• Justin Reid is just one away from 10 career interceptions.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Courtland Sutton has recorded 53+ receiving yards in each of the Broncos’ last seven November games.
• Javonte Williams has recorded 37+ rushing yards in each of his seven previous November appearances.
• Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in four of the Broncos’ last five games as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
• Javonte Williams has recorded 70+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Broncos’ last six road games against AFC opponents.
• Bo Nix has thrown two or more touchdowns in three of the Broncos’ last four Sunday games.
• Kwon Alexander is just one away from 10 career interceptions.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 10, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in time of possession per game (33:23) this season.
• Heading into Week 10, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 3rd down percentage (53.2%) this season.
• Heading into Week 10, the Broncos rank T2nd in the NFL in sacks (31.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 10, the Broncos rank T2nd in the NFL in H2 opponent points per game (7.2) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction 

Denver comes into this matchup after getting blown out in the second half by the Ravens last week, and it won’t get any easier against an undefeated Kansas City team. The Chiefs have won all eight of their games so far this season, but each of their last two wins came by came by just one possession. Denver’s defense has been one of the top units in the NFL this year, but they allowed 41 points to Baltimore last week. The Chiefs also have a very good defense through eight games, but did allow 24 to the Bucs last time out. I think both defenses will bounce back in this matchup and I like the under here.