Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans Prediction 12-21-24 NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans prediction for this NFL game on Saturday, December 21st at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 16 matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 13-1 this year after they defeated the Browns by a score of 21-7 in their last game. Kansas City scored the first 21 points in this game and they were never in danger of losing. The Chiefs outgained Cleveland by a total of 311-266, won the turnover battle 6-0, and went 7-18 on third down in the game. Patrick Mahomes threw for 159 yards and two touchdowns, but he was injured and did not return to the game. 

Prior to that win, the Chiefs won three games in a row against the Chargers, Raiders, and Panthers. The KC offense has scored 23.5 points per game with 224.1 passing yards and 112.1 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 18.5 points per game this season. Patrick Mahomes (questionable) has completed 66.7% of his passes for 3,348 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Travis Kelce has caught 84 passes for 709 yards and two scores this year. 

Houston Texans Betting Preview

The Houston Texans are 9-5 this season after they defeated Miami by a score of 20-12 in their last game. Houston led 13-6 at halftime and 20-6 in the third quarter, before hanging on for the win in the fourth. The Texans were outgained by a total of 224-181, won the turnover battle 4-1, and went 5-13 on third down in the game. CJ Stroud threw for 131 yards and two touchdowns, while Joe Mixon caught five passes for 33 yards in the game. 

Prior to that victory, the Texans defeated the Jaguars by a score of 23-20 but did lose to the Titans by a score of 32-27 before that. The Houston offense has scored 23.4 points per game with 212.8 passing yards and 111.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 21.4 points per game this season. CJ Stroud has completed 63.6% of his passes for 3,248 yards, 17 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, while Joe Mixon has rushed for 910 yards and 11 touchdowns this year. 

Why the Texans will beat the Chiefs

• The Texans have won four of their last five December games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games as favorites against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last six December games as road underdogs.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
• The Texans have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as underdogs against reigning Super Bowl champions.
• The Texans have won the first half in 10 of their last 11 games.
• The Texans have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last five home games in December has gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Texans’ last five games as underdogs against the Chiefs have gone OVER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 245+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last six games as favorites following a road win.
• Samaje Perine has recorded 11+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last eight games as favorites.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ rushing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last six regular season games against AFC South opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 29+ rushing and receiving yards in 21 of his 22 previous appearances with the Chiefs as favorites following a win.
• Patrick Mahomes has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of the Chiefs’ last three home games against the Texans.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 24+ completions in seven of the Chiefs’ last eight games as favorites.
• Justin Reid is just one away from 10 career interceptions.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Tank Dell has recorded 50+ receiving yards in each of his four previous appearances with the Texans as underdogs following a home win.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 280+ passing yards in four of his last five regular-season appearances with the Texans as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Joe Mixon has scored the first touchdown in each of the Texans’ last three road games.
• Joe Mixon has recorded 101+ rushing yards in each of his last six road appearances.
• Joe Mixon has recorded 106+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six road appearances.
• Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven road appearances.
• Heading into Week 16, Ka’imi Fairbairn ranks 1st in the NFL in 50+ yard field goals made (13) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 16, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 3rd down percentage (50.8%) this season.
• Heading into Week 16, the Chiefs rank 2nd in the NFL in time of possession per game (32:01) this season.
• Heading into Week 16, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in H1 win percentage (85.7) this season.
• Heading into Week 16, the Texans rank 2nd in the NFL in sacks (45.0) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans Prediction 

Kansas City comes into this matchup on a four-game winning streak and they have the best record in the NFL, but Patrick Mahomes is questionable for this game. The Chiefs will be at home for this contest, but they have had plenty of close calls this season. Houston has won three of their last four games, but they really aren’t playing that well. The Texans did next to nothing on offense last week in their win against Miami and they will play a very good KC defense here. This game obviously depends on the health of Mahomes, but even if he plays, I think he is going to be very limited. Take the Texans to win on the road.