Rams vs Colts Prediction 9/28/25 NFL Picks Today

The Indianapolis Colts and the Los Angeles Rams meet Sunday in NFL action from SoFi Stadium. Here’s a Rams vs Colts prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Rams vs Colts pick.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The Colts opened up the season with a matchup against the Miami Dolphins and things went pretty smoothly. Indy scored points in every quarter (double-digits in two of four) on the way to a 33-8 win. On offense the Colts accounted for 418 yards (262 passing) and 6.0 yards per play. In game two versus Denver, Indianapolis benefitted from a late penalty and ended up sneaking away with a 29-28 victory in the end. The Colts put up 473 yards (306 passing), 7.1 yards per play and 26 first downs this time, but also committed 11 penalties themselves.

In last weekend’s game versus the Tennessee Titans, the Colts were able to keep their run going. Indianapolis scored 17 points in the first quarter and 14 more in the third during a 41-20 victory. QB Daniel Jones was 18-of-25 for 228 yards and a touchdown, but Jonathan Taylor had the biggest day on offense with 17 carries for 102 yards and three scores. Michael Pittman was the leading receiver in the win with six grabs for 73 yards and a touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview

Over on the Rams’ side, they opened up their season with a matchup at home versus the Houston Texans. Los Angeles was down 9-7 at the break but eventually emerged victorious 14-9. The Rams’ offense accounted for 296 yards total, with 224 of those coming via the passing game. In their second matchup of the year versus the Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles held the opposition to a pair of second-half field goals in a 33-19 victory. The Rams got 439 yards of offense this time (290 passing) alongside 7.4 yards per play and 22 first downs.

Matched up against the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles last weekend, the Rams were up 19-7 by the end of the first half. After getting outscored 26-7 from there however, Los Angeles had a 33-26 loss. QB Matthew Stafford was 19-of-33 for 196 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Top team rusher Kyren Williams carried 20 times for 94 yards, and Puka Nacua caught 11 balls for 112 yards to pace the receivers.

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Los Angeles Rams will win

• The Rams have won each of their last 12 Sunday games as favorites.
• The Colts have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
• The Rams have covered the spread in each of their last six Sunday games as favorites.
• The Colts have won the first quarter in each of their last three games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• The Rams have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last eight games against AFC South opponents.
• The Rams have won the first half in each of their last five Week 4 games against AFC opponents.

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Colts have won four of their last five September games as underdogs.
• The Rams have lost three of their last four Week 4 games.
• The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games in September.
• The Rams have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Week 4 home games.
• The Colts have won the first quarter in five of their last six games as underdogs following a win.
• The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games as road underdogs.
• The road team has won the first half in seven of the Colts’ last eight Week 4 games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Colts’ last eight Sunday games played on the West Coast have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the Rams’ last eight home games following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of the last eight Sunday games at SoFi Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Facts

• Kyren Williams has scored the first touchdown in each of his last five home appearances.
• Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last nine Sunday home appearances.
• Puka Nacua has recorded 98+ receiving yards in each of his last seven regular season home appearances.
• Kyren Williams has recorded 72+ rushing and receiving yards in 18 of his last 19 appearances.
• Kyren Williams has recorded 66+ rushing yards in each of his last 14 Sunday appearances.
• Matthew Stafford has recorded 240+ passing yards in each of his 16 previous September appearances against AFC opponents.
• Matthew Stafford has recorded 24+ completions in five of his last six home appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Puka Nacua ranks 1st in the NFL in receiving yards (333) this season.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan Taylor has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Colts’ last six games.
• Anthony Richardson has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances with the Colts as road underdogs.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 16+ receiving yards in each of the Colts’ last six September games.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 108+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Colts’ last four games played on the West Coast.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 96+ rushing yards in seven of the Colts’ last eight games.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 228+ passing yards in each of his last five September appearances.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 20+ completions in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Heading into Week 4, Jonathan Taylor ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (338) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Rams – two different players have recorded 100+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Rams – eight different players have recorded 1.0 sacks or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Colts – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Colts – five different players have recorded 50+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.

Rams vs Colts Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Colts, but I’m probably avoiding this one. It could well be a trap for Indy as they put their unbeaten record on the line. That said, the Colts traveled well last weekend in the road win, generating 365 yards (228 passing), 6.9 yards per play and 22 first downs. Indianapolis wasn’t great on third downs (2-of-8), but the defense made up for it. The Colts allowed just 282 total yards (196 passing), 20 first downs and 4-of-14 on third-down conversions. It was Indianapolis’ highest points total of the year; they’ve now scored 29 or more in all three games.

As for Los Angeles, they started well against the reigning champion Eagles on Sunday but couldn’t close out the road win. The Rams defense wasn’t bad on 288 yards allowed (202 passing), 4.6 yards per play and 5-of-14 on third-down tries. That said, Philly also went 4-of-5 on fourth downs which extended some crucial drives. On offense the Rams generated 356 yards (196 passing), 5.5 yards per play and 22 first downs but also had a pretty rough success rate on third-down tries (3-of-10). LA had given up just 28 combined points over the previous two games before surrendering 33 to Philadelphia. The offense has a combined 59 points over the past two outings though, so it might be fun to try the over in this one.