Raiders vs Chiefs Prediction 1/4/26 NFL Picks Today

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders meet Sunday in NFL action from Allegiant Stadium. Here’s a Raiders vs Chiefs prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Raiders vs Chiefs pick.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Chiefs limped into their bye week with a rough 5-4 overall record this year. The wins in that time were over the Giants, Ravens, Lions, Raiders and Commanders. After the open week, Kansas City has since hit a 1-6 stretch. The lone win was over the Colts; otherwise it was losses to the Broncos, Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, Titans and Broncos again for a 6-10 overall record.

In the home rematch with the Broncos back on Christmas Day, the Chiefs gave up points in every quarter on the way to a 20-13 loss. QB Chris Oladokun was 13-of-22 for 66 yards and a TD while Kareem Hunt had seven carries for 38 yards. Travis Kelce led the receivers with five catches for 36 yards in the losing effort for the Chiefs.

Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview

Over on the Raiders’ side, they managed to go just 2-5 ahead of their bye week this year. Las Vegas’ losses in that time were versus the Chargers, Commanders, Bears, Colts and Chiefs. After that came a rough losing streak versus the Jaguars, Broncos, Cowboys, Browns, Chargers, Broncos, Eagles and Texans. That would leave the Raiders with a 2-13 run over their first 15 outings this year.

Matched up against the Giants on Sunday, the Raiders gave up double-digit points in the second and third quarters on the way to a 34-10 loss. QB Geno Smith had a 20-of-28 line for 176 yards, one TD and two picks. Leading rusher Ashton Jeanty had 16 carries for 60 yards and Michael Mayer had nine catches for 89 yards in the losing effort for the Raiders.

Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win

• The Chiefs have lost each of their last five games as favorites without Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
• The underdogs have won four of the Chiefs’ last five games.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games without Isiah Pacheco.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Chiefs’ last eight games.
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in three of their last four games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last six games as favorites against AFC opponents.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 16 games played on the West Coast.
• The Raiders have lost each of their last 11 games against AFC West opponents.
• The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games played on the West Coast.
• The Raiders have lost the first quarter in each of their last two games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games against the Raiders.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last eight January games as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last nine Sunday games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Raiders’ last seven Sunday games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total points line.

Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Facts

• Geno Smith has recorded 11+ rushing yards in seven of his eight previous home appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Tyler Lockett has scored a touchdown in three of his four appearances with his team as a home underdog against teams that held a losing record.
• Geno Smith has recorded 201+ passing yards in 12 of his last 16 appearances with his team as an underdog following a loss.
• Tyler Lockett has recorded 36+ receiving yards in seven of his eight previous January appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Geno Smith has recorded 20+ completions in five of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog.
• Heading into Week 18, Tre Tucker has recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Commanders, Week 3).

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Isiah Pacheco has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five appearances against the Raiders.
• Noah Gray has recorded 22+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last four games played on the West Coast.
• Kareem Hunt has scored the first touchdown in four of his five previous January appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 59+ rushing yards in each of his four previous appearances with the Chiefs as favorites on the West Coast.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 63+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his four previous appearances with the Chiefs as favorites on the West Coast.
• Heading into Week 18, Isiah Pacheco ranks 1st in the league amongst qualified players for broken tackle percentage (59.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 18, the Raiders rank 32nd in the NFL in points per game (14.2) this season.
• Heading into Week 18, the Raiders rank 32nd in the NFL in yards per game (247.8) this season.
• Heading into Week 18, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (28.6%) this season.
• Heading into Week 18, the Chiefs have suffered the equal-most losses when leading at HT this season (5).

Raiders vs Chiefs Prediction

I might take a stab on the Raiders in this one. Probably not touching it, though. Las Vegas got demolished by a not-very-good Giants team in their last outing, notching just 231 yards with 63 rush yards, 14 first downs, two picks and 3-of-13 on third downs. The defense gave up 343 yards and 22 first downs on the other side. That makes 10 or fewer points in two of the last three weeks for the Raiders, and 10 straight losses in all.
These teams last saw each other back on October 19 in a 31-0 home blowout win for the Chiefs. Kansas City managed 434 yards in that one with 30 first downs and 42:08 in time of possession. Meanwhile the Raiders limped to just 95 yards with three first downs and an abysmal 0-of-7 on third-down tries. I’d like to think that Las Vegas won’t be quite so incompetent here, but you never know.