Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins Prediction 9/13/26 NFL Picks Today

The Miami Dolphins and the Las Vegas Raiders meet in week 1 NFL action from Allegiant Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders prediction.

Miami Dolphins Team Preview

The Miami Dolphins enter the 2026 season launching a new regime under head coach Jeff Hafley following a 7-10 campaign in 2025 that led to the departure of Mike McDaniel. In 2025, De’Von Achane paced the ground game with 1,350 total yards and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 2,660 yards before both sides parted ways during a complete roster overhaul. During the 2026 offseason, general manager Chris Grier reshaped the offense by signing quarterback Malik Willis to lead the unit alongside free-agent additions Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell, while trading Jaylen Waddle to Denver and releasing Tagovailoa. To support the transition, Miami secured Achane on a long-term extension, added offensive line support in draft pick Kadyn Proctor, and signed edge rusher Josh Uche to strengthen Hafley’s defense. Operating under Hafley’s defensive scheme with Willis helming the offense, the Dolphins head into 2026 looking to reset their identity and climb back into AFC East contention.

Las Vegas Raiders Team Preview

The Las Vegas Raiders enter the 2026 season launching a fresh era under new head coach Klint Kubiak following a 3-14 campaign in 2025 that earned them the first overall pick. In 2025, rookie running back Ashton Jeanty led the Raiders’ ground attack with 975 rushing yards, Tre Tucker led all receivers with 696 receiving yards, and tight end Brock Bowers added 680 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, while Maxx Crosby anchored the defense with 10 sacks. During the 2026 offseason, general manager Tom Telesco completely restructured the roster, using that number one draft pick on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza while also signing veteran Kirk Cousins to stabilize the passing game. To support the new signal-callers, Las Vegas rebuilt the offensive line with Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum and guard Spencer Burford, while bolstering the defense with edge rusher Kwity Paye, linebackers Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean, and re-signing cornerback Eric Stokes. Operating under Kubiak’s offense with an upgraded line protecting the quarterbacks and opening paths for Jeanty, the Raiders head into 2026 looking to establish stability and contend in the AFC West.

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders Betting Trends: Week 1

Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win

• The Dolphins have lost each of their last 12 games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The favorites have won each of the last seven games between the Dolphins and Raiders.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in three of their last four road openers.
• The Raiders have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last 10 Week 1 games.
• The favorites have won the first half in five of the Dolphins’ last six games.

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Raiders have lost each of their last nine games without Michael Mayer.
• The Dolphins have won seven of their last eight Sunday games against starting rookie QBs.
• The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six September games as favorites.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in six of their last seven September games against AFC West opponents.
• The Raiders have lost the first half in each of their last four games against AFC East opponents.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in four of the last five games between the Dolphins and Raiders.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Dolphins’ last six games without Greg Dulcich have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Raiders’ last four home games without Michael Mayer have gone OVER the total points line.

Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Facts

• Connor Heyward has scored a touchdown in each of his last two regular season home appearances.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 221+ passing yards in 13 of his last 15 September appearances.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 20+ completions in 13 of his 14 previous appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Tre Tucker recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game last season (3 vs Commanders, Week 3).

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• De’Von Achane has scored a touchdown in five of his last six Sunday road appearances.
• Greg Dulcich has recorded 31+ receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last five games.
• De’Von Achane has recorded 81+ rushing yards in each of his last six Sunday appearances.
• Malik Washington has recorded 28+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last six Sunday games as road underdogs.
• De’Von Achane ranked 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (5.7) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Raiders – five different players recorded 2.0 sacks or more in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• The Raiders ranked 32nd in the NFL in points per game (14.2) last season.
• Dolphins – two different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• Dolphins – two different players recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

I’m leaning towards the under in this one. This just feels like a 60-minute slopfest between two teams that are trying to find themselves right now. Miami might be the worst team in the AFC and the Raiders just can’t figure out their QB room and always seem to fall flat every single year. I don’t think we wait for much disappointment as we hit the under here.