Lions vs Chiefs Prediction 10/12/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Lions vs Chiefs Prediction for this NFL Week 5 game on Sunday, October 12^th at the GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs have a 2-3 record this season and are sitting in 3^rd place of the AFC West. They are 2-3 ATS, 3-2 in Over/Under and have a 1-1 home record and 1-2 away record. The Chiefs are coming off a 28-31 loss in Jacksonville by the Jaguars over the Minnesota Vikings and are playing the Raiders, Commanders and Bills next.

Offensively, the Chiefs average 25 points per game, which ranks 12th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 21.4 points per game, which is 13th. Kansas City averages 361 total yards per game, with 120 rushing yards and 241 passing yards per game. They allow 314 total yards per game, with 123.4 rushing and 190.6 passing yards per game.

Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs with 1257 passing yards and 63.4% completed passes, adding 8 touchdowns. He also leads the team in rushing yards, with 190, while Marquise Brown has a team-high 26 receptions for 257 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Defensively, Nick Bolton has a team-high 46 total tackles, 21 of them solo. George Karlaftis III leads the Chiefs in sacks, with 3.5, while Jaylen Watson, Leo Chenal, Trent McDuffie, Christian Roland-Wallace each have one defensive interception.

Detroit Lions Preview

The Detroit Lions have a 4-1 record this season and are sitting in third place of the AFC North. They are 4-1 ATS, 3-2 in Over/Under and have a 2-0 home record and 2-1 away record. The Lions are coming off a 17-21 road loss to the Minnesota Vikings and are playing the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots next.

Offensively, the Lions average 34.8 points per game, which ranks first in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 22.4 points per game, which is 17^th. Detroit averages 365 total yards per game, with 134.8 rushing yards and 230.2 passing yards per game. They allow 298.8 total yards per game, with 92.2 rushing yards and 206.6 passing yards per game

Jared Goff leads the Lions with 1187 passing yards and 75.2% completed passes, with 12 touchdowns. Jahmyr Gibbs leads the team in rushing yards, with 325, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has a team-high 35 receptions for 407 receiving yards. Defensively, Jack Campbell has a team-high 48 total tackles, 27 of them solo. Aidan Hutchinson leads the Lions in sacks, with 5.0, while Kerby Joseph has a team-high 3 defensive interceptions.

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends: Week 6

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 12 games as home favorites.
• The Lions have lost each of their last four Week 6 games against AFC West opponents.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last seven October games against NFC opponents.
• The Lions have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six October games as underdogs.
• The Lions have lost the first quarter in each of their last six road games following a road win.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five games as home favorites.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last 10 games as home favorites against NFC opponents.

Why the Detroit Lions will win

• The Lions have won each of their last nine games following a road win.
• The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last seven Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium following a loss.
• The Lions have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four Week 6 road games.
• The Lions have won the first half in each of their last 14 Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Lions have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight Week 6 road games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last six games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Lions’ last four games in October have gone OVER the total points line.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Robert Tonyan has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six home appearances with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 49+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances against NFC North opponents.
• Isiah Pacheco has recorded 55+ rushing yards in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 11 games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Isiah Pacheco has recorded 37+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 20 Sunday regular season appearances with the Chiefs as favorites.
• Heading into Week 6, Tyquan Thornton ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (20.9) this season.

Detroit Lions Player Prop Facts

• Jahmyr Gibbs has scored two or more touchdowns in four of the Lions’ last five games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• David Montgomery has recorded 58+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC opponents.
• Jared Goff has recorded 240+ passing yards in seven of the Lions’ last eight games as underdogs with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Jared Goff has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last six appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Jahmyr Gibbs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Lions’ last eight games following a win.
• David Montgomery has recorded 70+ rushing and receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as an underdog following a win.
• David Montgomery has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of his last nine Sunday appearances with his team as a road underdog.
• Heading into Week 6, Jared Goff ranks 1st in the NFL in passing touchdowns (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 6, the Chiefs have recorded the equal-most losses in games when recording more total yards than their opponent this season (2).
• Heading into Week 6, the Chiefs rank 3rd in the NFL in 4th down percentage (90.0%) this season.
• Lions – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 6.
• Lions – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 6.

Lions vs Chiefs Prediction

In their previous meeting in 2023, the Lions won 21-20 on the road, and are 3-2 in their 5 meetings against the Chiefs. Both teams are tied 1-1 in their two meetings in Kansas City, and over is 4-1 in their 5 meetings.

In this Lions vs Chiefs Prediction, the Chiefs are coming as -2-point home favorites, with the total set at 52.5 points. The Chiefs are just 2-3 this season and 1-1 at home, while the Lions are almost perfect, with just one defeat in their five games played. Detroit has four consecutive wins after losing their season opener, and have covered the spread in all four wins. They have the league’s best offense, scoring 34.8 points per game, and are winning by an average of 12.4 points per game. I like Detroit as a road dog in this spot, so take the Lions and the +2 points in this one.