Buffalo Bills (1-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-0)
September 12, 2024 8:15 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Dolphins -2.5; Over/Under: 50.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins meet Thursday in week 2 NFL action at Hard Rock Stadium. Here’s a Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction. This article will include a Kansas Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Pick.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
The Buffalo Bills just beat the Cardinals opening week and play the Jaguars next. The Bills look for their fourth 2-0 start in the last 6 years. Josh Allen is completing 78.3 percent of his passes for 232 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir have combined for 93 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while James Cook has 3 receptions.
The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 130 yards per contest, and Cook leads the way with 71 yards on 19 carries. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 28 points and 270 yards per game. Terrel Bernard leads the Buffalo Bills with 11 tackles, Greg Rousseau has 3 sacks and DaQuan Jones has 1 pass deflection.
Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
The Miami Dolphins beat the Jaguars opening week and play the Seahawks next. The Dolphins look for a third straight 2-0 start to the season. Tua Tagovailoa is completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 338 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 239 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while De’Von Achane has 7 receptions.
The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 81 yards per contest, and Jeff Wilson Jr. leads the way with 26 yards on 5 carries. Defensively, Miami is allowing 17 points and 267 yards per game. David Long Jr. leads the Miami Dolphins with 8 tackles, Calais Campbell has 1 sack and Jevon Holland has 1 pass deflection.
Why the Miami Dolphins will win
- The Dolphins have won each of their last 10 games as home favorites against AFC East opponents.
- The Bills have lost three of their last four games in Florida.
- The Dolphins have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against AFC East opponents.
- The Bills have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games at Hard Rock Stadium following a home win.
- The Bills have lost the first quarter in each of their last six September games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five home games against AFC opponents.
- The favorites have won the first half in each of the Bills’ last seven Week 2 games.
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
- Raheem Mostert has scored two touchdowns in three of the Dolphins’ last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- Raheem Mostert has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 10 appearances with the Dolphins as favorites following a win.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 270+ passing yards in each of the Dolphins’ last three September games as home favorites.
- Jaylen Waddle has recorded 84+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
- Odell Beckham Jr. has recorded 36+ receiving yards in each of his 13 previous September home appearances.
- Raheem Mostert has recorded 46+ rushing yards in eight of his last nine appearances with the Dolphins as favorites following a win.
- Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 23+ completions in five of the Dolphins’ last six games as home favorites.
- Tua Tagovailoa ranks 1st in the NFL in passing yards (338) this season.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
- Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four regular season games.
- Josh Allen has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Bills’ last 13 games against the Dolphins.
- Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of the Bills’ last 13 games following a win.
- Josh Allen has recorded 44+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last six games as underdogs following a win.
- Josh Allen has recorded 258+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last six games as underdogs following a win.
- Dawson Knox has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of his six previous appearances in Florida.
- Curtis Samuel has recorded 33+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight September appearances with his team as an underdog.
- Josh Allen has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Bills’ last six games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
- Gregory Rousseau ranks T1st in the NFL in sacks (3.0) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Dolphins rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game (319.0) this season.
- The Dolphins rank T1st in the NFL in Q3 win percentage (100.0) this season.
- The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in average kickoff return (53.0 yards) this season.
- The Bills rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (100.0%) this season.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction
The Bills and Dolphins both needed to make big second-half comebacks in week 1 to avoid upset losses at home. They now gear up on short rest for a crucial early division game. The Bills and the points are hard to pass up because they have won 9 of the last 10 games against the Dolphins, and most of those games weren’t close.
With that said, the Dolphins are a home where they’ve been great in recent years, and they’re 10-5 ATS in their last 15 home games as a favorite. The Bills are still trying to figure things out offensively with so much lost production, and they’re 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. The Dolphins have fewer questions roster-wise out of the gate, and not having to travel on short rest has its advantages. Just under a field goal, I’ll lay the chalk with the Dolphins as they get a rare win over Buffalo.
