New England Patriots (10-6) vs. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
January 9, 2022 4:25 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Dolphins +5.5 ; Over/Under: 40
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots square off Sunday afternoon in week 18 NFL action from Hard Rock Stadium. New England is sitting at 10-6 so far. The Patriots beat the Jaguars in their last game. As for Miami, they’re 8-8 and coming off a loss to Tennessee. Check back all season long for free NFL picks at Sports Chat Place.
New England stumbled out of the gate to a 2-4 start this year but started picking it up after that. The Patriots would hit a seven-game win streak before losses to the Colts and Bills. Last weekend was another win, this time over Jacksonville.
Matched up against the Jaguars, the Patriots didn’t have much trouble. New England scored in every quarter on the way to a 50-10 blowout win. QB Mac Jones had 227 yards and three scores, while Rhamondre Stevenson put up 107 yards and two TDs.
Over on the Miami side, an early-season losing streak left them at 1-7. The Dolphins then took out the Texans, Ravens, Jets, Panthers, Giants, Jets and Saints to get back over .500, but lost to the Titans in their last game.
In the matchup versus Tennessee last weekend, the Dolphins were down 17-3 at halftime and didn’t get any closer in a 34-3 blowout loss. QB Tua Tagovailoa finished on 205 yards with a pick, and Duke Johnson rushed for 49 yards on seven carries.
The Pats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after an ATS win and 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite. New England is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall. Miami is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five after an ATS loss.
PICK: I’m probably staying with the Patriots in this one. These teams last met in the season opener, where Miami stunned New England with a 17-16 victory at Gillette Stadium. Needless to say, the Patriots have steadied the ship since then and should be able to produce plenty of offense here.
I like Miami to hang around most of the way in this one, especially with the added lift of playing a division rival at home. Ultimately I think it’ll be a New England cover, though—maybe by a touchdown or so.
