Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans Prediction 9-22-24 NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, September 22nd at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 3 matchup.

Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview

The Minnesota Vikings are 2-0 this year after they defeated San Francisco by a score of 23-17 in their last game. Minnesota led 20-7 in the third quarter and they were able to add a field goal in the fourth for the win. The Vikings outgained San Francisco by a total of 403-399, tied the turnover battle at two, and went 7-12 on third down in the game. San Darnold threw for 268 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Justin Jefferson caught four passes for 133 yards and one score. 

Minnesota defeated the Giants by a score of 28-6 in their first game, so they have looked very good through two games. The Minnesota offense has scored 25.5 points per game with 229 passing yards and 128.5 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 11.5 points per game this season. The Vikings have gone 45.5% on third down and 1-1 on fourth down through two games. Sam Darnold has completed 72% of his passes for 476 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Aaron Jones has rushed for 126 yards and one score. 

Houston Texans Betting Preview

The Houston Texans are 2-0 this season after they defeated Chicago by a score of 19-13 in their last game. Houston was tied at three in the first quarter, but they scored 16 of the next 23 points to pull away for the win. The Texans outgained Chicago by a total of 310-205, won the turnover battle 2-1, and went 4-14 on third down in the game. CJ Stroud threw for 260 yards and one touchdown, while Nico Collins caught eight passes for 135 yards and one score. 

Houston defeated Indianapolis by a score of 29-27 in week one, but their defense did play much better in week two. The Houston offense has scored 24 points per game with 219.5 passing yards and 144 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 20 points per game this season. The Texans have gone 39.3% on third down and 3-3 on fourth down so far this season. CJ Stroud has completed 69.1% of his passes for 494 yards and three touchdowns, while Joe Mixon has rushed for 184 yards and one score. 

Why the Texans will beat the Vikings

• The Vikings have lost 14 of their last 15 games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Texans have won three of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 15 games as underdogs following a home win.
• The favorites have covered the spread in four of the Vikings’ last five games.
• The Texans have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games against NFC opponents.
• The Vikings have lost the first quarter in four of their last five home games against AFC opponents.
• The Texans have won the first half in each of their last four games as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Five of the Vikings’ last six home games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the Texans’ last six September games as road favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
• Three of the last four Sunday games at U.S. Bank Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Facts

• Justin Jefferson has scored a touchdown in eight of the Vikings’ last nine home games against AFC opponents.
• Sam Darnold has recorded 268+ passing yards in three of his last four September home appearances.
• Ty Chandler has recorded 42+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of the Vikings’ last eight Sunday games.
• T.J. Hockenson has recorded 55+ receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances with the Vikings as underdogs.
• Sam Darnold has recorded 19+ rushing yards in each of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Sam Darnold has recorded 24+ completions in each of his three previous September home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Justin Jefferson ranks T1st in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (2) this season.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Joe Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six Sunday appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 48+ receiving yards in 14 of his last 15 Sunday appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• C.J. Stroud has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of the Texans’ last five games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• Joe Mixon has recorded 65+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight road appearances.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 48+ rushing and receiving yards in 14 of his last 15 Sunday appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Nico Collins ranks 1st in the NFL in receiving yards (252) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Vikings rank 1st in the NFL in sacks (11.0) this season.
• The Vikings rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (100.0%) this season.
• The Texans rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (100.0%) this season.
• The Texans rank T1st in the NFL in Q2 win percentage (100.0) this season.

Minnesota Vikings vs Houston Texans Prediction 

Both of these teams have started the season with two straight wins, so they will be trying to stay undefeated in this matchup. Houston was expected to be very good this season, but Minnesota has been a pleasant surprise. The Vikings blew the doors off of the Giants and snuck by the 49ers in their first two games, so they will be full of confidence.

Houston struggled to score points against Chicago last week, but I expect them to bounce back in this game. I still don’t trust Darnold as a starting quarterback and I will take Stroud over him every day of the week. Take the Texans to get the win and stay undefeated.